AI vs the Stock Market: How Did Value Stocks, Gold and PayPal Perform in April?
AI is a new tool for investors to use for data analysis, but can it beat the stock market? Here's how a chatbot's stock picks fared in April.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming more and more ingrained in our daily lives, helping us with everything from solving customer service issues to diagnosing medical conditions to picking stocks to buy.
It's that last one that is the focus of this article. Given AI's ability to analyze massive amounts of data in a very short amount of time – a feature that requires enormous energy use – the technology is a natural fit for investors, traders, asset management firms and the like.
As just one example, most banks and brokers now offer robo-adviser accounts, which use AI to build and manage investment portfolios at a much lower cost than those maintained by actual people.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
And for those do-it-yourselfers (DIYers), there's a laundry list of stock-picking platforms such as Danelfin that use AI to spit out lists of the top stocks matching their specific criteria.
I decided to test AI's predictive capabilities, and back on March 31, I asked Google's Gemini AI chatbot where I should invest in April. I also asked for a list of the best stocks to buy for the month.
Here's what it had to say and how its predictions matched actual market movement. All returns are through the April 29 close.
Where to invest
When I asked Gemini where to invest in April, it offered me a broad list of "potential investment areas for April 2025."
Right off the bat, it listed "undervalued stocks," highlighting Nike (NKE) and Alphabet (GOOGL) as "individual stocks currently considered undervalued by analysts."
April was a volatile month for the equities market, and value stocks as a group, as measured by the S&P 500 Value Index, fell nearly 4%. Growth stocks, on the other hand, generated a 2% return in April, per the S&P 500 Growth Index.
As for NKE, it shed 9.4%. GOOGL stock gained 3.6%.
The chatbot also highlighted insurance stocks as a potential investment area, given they were "showing relative strength" and "reaching new highs" heading into April.
It recommended the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK) as one of the best ETFs to buy to gain broad exposure to the industry. IAK is poised to finish the month of April down 4%.
Gemini also recommended gold as a potential opportunity for investors. "Gold has been a strong performer in early 2025," the chatbot said, adding that it is "often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty."
The precious metal continued its uptrend in April, gaining more than 5% and hitting a record high north of the $3,500 per troy ounce price point on April 22.
Best stocks to buy
When I asked Gemini on March 31 what the best stocks to buy in April would be, it offered up several suggestions.
To start, it named pharmacy retail chain CVS Health (CVS) and tobacco giant Philip Morris International (PM) as stocks that had outperformed for the year to date through March 31 and could continue to do so through April.
CVS shares slumped 4%, but PM stock rose 7.3%.
Gemini also called out automaker General Motors (GM) and fintech firm PayPal Holdings (PYPL) as possible options for those seeking out top value plays.
Looking at their actual performance for April, GM was flat, while PYPL gained 1.6%.
For what it's worth, these were the best-performing S&P 500 stocks in April:
Stock | Return |
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | 35.2% |
GE Vernova (GE) | 22.5% |
CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) | 20.7% |
Netflix (NFLX) | 20.5% |
ServiceNow (NOW) | 18.2% |
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) | 17.7% |
Discover Financial Services (DFS) | 16.8% |
Amphenol (APH) | 15.2% |
NRG Energy (NRG) | 15.1% |
Quanta Services (PWR) | 15.0% |
The bottom line on AI vs the stock market
I did appreciate that Gemini noted its recommendations were "for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice."
It also reminded me of the risks involved with investing in the stock market, including losing my money, and advised me to conduct my own research and consider speaking with a financial adviser.
To be sure, I would never blindly invest in anything an AI chatbot recommended – and neither should you. Still, it is an interesting exercise to see how picks made by AI would perform throughout the month.
So much so that I'm doing it again for May. Check back next month to see how AI's stock picks fared. Here's a hint: We're watching growth stocks, Albemarle (ALB) and Target (TGT).
Related content
- 10 Major AI Companies You Should Know
- Best AI Stocks to Buy: Smart Artificial Intelligence Investments
- How AI Will Impact Your Workplace Retirement Plan
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021 after 10 years of working as an investing writer and columnist at a local investment research firm. In her previous role, Karee focused primarily on options trading, as well as technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis.
-
Quiz: Do You Really Know How Social Security Benefits Are Taxed?Quiz Social Security benefits often come with confusing IRS tax rules that can trip up financially savvy retirees and near-retirees.
-
Are You Ready for 65? The Medicare Initial Enrollment Period QuizQuiz Turning 65 soon? Test your basic knowledge of Medicare's Initial Enrollment Period (IEP) rules in our quick quiz.
-
3 Ways to Stretch the 2026 Social Security COLA For Your BudgetThree steps retirees can take to stretch the Social Security COLA to fit their budgets.
-
Giving Tuesday Is Just the Start: An Expert Guide to Keeping Your Charitable Giving Momentum Going All YearInstead of treating charity like a year-end rush for tax breaks, consider using smart tools like DAFs and recurring grants for maximum impact all the year.
-
Uber Takes Aim at the Bottom Lines of Billboard Personal Injury LawyersUber has filed lawsuits and proposed a ballot initiative, in California, to curb settlements it claims are falsely inflated by some personal injury lawyers.
-
Dow Slides 427 Points to Open December: Stock Market TodayThe final month of 2025 begins on a negative note after stocks ended November with a startling rally.
-
A Financial Adviser's Health Journey Shows How the 'Pink Tax' Costs WomenFact: Women pay significantly more for health care over their lifetimes. But there are some things we can do to protect our health and our financial security.
-
I'm a Cross-Border Financial Adviser: 5 Things I Wish Americans Knew About Taxes Before Moving to PortugalMoving to Portugal might not be the clean financial break you expect due to U.S. tax obligations, foreign investment risks, lower investment yields and more.
-
What to Make of a Hot IPO MarketThis year's crop of initial public offerings could be even dicier than usual because of a skew toward tech and crypto.
-
How to Position Your Portfolio for Lower Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve is far from done with its rate-cutting regime. This is how investors can prepare.
-
Show of Hands: Who Hates Taxes? The Best Time to Plan for Them Is Right NowBy creating a tax plan, you can keep more of what you've earned and give less to Uncle Sam. Here's how you can follow the rules and pay only your fair share.