The Dow Jones industrial average index (DJIA) opened 2018 just shy of 25,000 on Jan. 2, and a little over two weeks later it already had topped 26,000. I was recently asked when I thought the Dow would reach 30,000. Since stocks are the long-term piece of an investor’s portfolio I think this question misses the mark. The better question is, when will the Dow double to hit 50,000?
First a comment about the index. This DJIA is made up of 30 large-company U.S. stocks. In general, it gives investors a rough idea of how the U.S. stock market is doing. However, since it is composed of only large-company U.S. stocks, it’s really only a good barometer for how large-company U.S. stocks are doing, not all stock categories (small & mid-cap stocks, international stocks, etc.). Because most people are familiar with the index, we often use it to put us in the ballpark when gauging the stock market’s performance.
A ballpark answer: Seven to 10 years
The DJIA needs to rise by 20% to hit 30,000. Another year like 2017 would get us to 30,000. In 2017 the DJIA rose 4,957 points, or 25%. Even if the market’s rise slows, I believe the DJIA will hit 30,000 in the next one to three years, and 50,000 in the next seven to 10 years. If capitalism works, as I believe it does, it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to see this occur. Let's dig deeper.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
For a moment let's ignore the economy, the geopolitical landscape and fiscal policy and just focus on the simple math at hand. Let's review the “Rule of 72.” The Rule of 72 is a way to determine how long it will take for an investment to double in value. Here is how it works. Simply take an investment’s growth rate and divide it into the number 72. The result equals the length of time it will take your money, or in our case, the index, to double.
For example, the DJIA has enjoyed an annualized increase of 7.33% since 1950, based on Yahoo Finance historical data. If we divide 72 by the number 7.33 (our historic annual rate of return) we get 9.82. So, at a 7.33% annualized increase the DJIA will double every 10 years (9.82 years, to be exact). If we continue at our 1950-2017 pace, the DJIA index will double, or hit 50,000, in 10 years.
Your investments could grow even faster than Dow
Although the DJIA may take 10 years to double, the money you invest in DJIA stocks should double faster than that. Remember, the DJIA measures stock price changes. It does not also include the dividends DJIA stocks pay. Currently, the DJIA stocks pay about a 2% dividend, according to Yahoo Finance. For example, if you bought into the DJIA by investing $10,000 into the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ETF (Symbol: DIA) from 2008-2017 it would have grown to $23,967 if you had dividends reinvested, and only $18,670 without reinvested dividends.*
What are the chances the DJIA will double in the next 10 years? To answer this question I looked back and measured each 10-year period from post-World War II until now.** Out of 64 10-year periods, the index doubled in 31 of them, or about half of the time (48%). The best 10-year period ended in 1998, providing a 10-year annualized return of 15.5%, while the worst 10-year period ended in 1974, producing a negative 3.4% annualized return. Of course, past average performance (7.33%) is no guarantee of future results. There has been a major variation depending on the time period you measure. The longer you have to invest, the more likely you are to have a better average return.
The bottom line for investors
I like to look at stocks as my long-term money (money I don’t plan on spending for 10 or more years.) Consequently, I am not really concerned about where the DJIA Index is in two to three years, or when it may hit 30,000, but rather where it will be in 10 years or beyond. Because I believe capitalism will continue to work, I believe companies will continue to make money and stocks will continue to rise. If the DJIA index continues at its average 1950-2017 rate, it will reach the 50,000 mark sometime around 2027-28.
*Morningstar Office
**The first rolling 10-year period measured was from 1945-1954
-
Cord Cutting Could Help You Save Over $10,000 in 10 YearsHow cutting the cord can save you money and how those savings can grow over time.
-
The '8-Year Rule of Social Security' — A Retirement RuleThe '8-Year Rule of Social Security' holds that it's best to be like Ike — Eisenhower, that is. The five-star General knew a thing or two about good timing.
-
You Were Planning to Retire This Year: Should You Go Ahead?If the economic climate is making you doubt whether you should retire this year, these three questions will help you make up your mind.
-
Are You Owed Money Thanks to the SSFA? You Might Need to Do Something to Get ItThe Social Security Fairness Act removed restrictions on benefits for people with government pensions. If you're one of them, don't leave money on the table. Here's how you can be proactive in claiming what you're due.
-
From Wills to Wishes: An Expert Guide to Your Estate Planning PlaybookConsider supplementing your traditional legal documents with this essential road map to guide your loved ones through the emotional and logistical details that will follow your loss.
-
Your Home + Your IRA = Your Long-Term Care SolutionIf you're worried that long-term care costs will drain your retirement savings, consider a personalized retirement plan that could solve your problem.
-
I'm a Financial Planner: Retirees Should Never Do These Four Things in a RecessionRecessions are scary business, especially for retirees. They can scare even the most prepared folks into making bad moves — like these.
-
A Retirement Planner's Advice for Taking the Guesswork Out of Income PlanningOnce you've saved for retirement, you'll need your nest egg to support you for as many as 30 years. For that, you need a clear income strategy, not guesswork.
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Swing as Trump Scraps Canada Trade TalksDespite a mid-afternoon slip, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day at new record highs.
-
Why Smart Retirees Are Ditching Traditional Financial PlansFinancial plans based purely on growth, like the 60/40 portfolio, are built for a different era. Today’s retirees need plans based on real-life risks and goals and that feature these four elements.
