Politics

Boehner’s Resignation Makes Government Shutdown Less Likely – For Now

Bigger fights over the federal budget are in store amid divided Republicans in Congress.

House Speaker John Boehner’s surprise decision to quit lessens dramatically the chance of a federal shutdown next week.

Boehner, no longer needing to worry about his political future, can ignore conservative Republicans who want to block government funding for Planned Parenthood and pass a budget with the help of House Democrats and a relative handful of Republicans by the time the new fiscal year starts Oct. 1.

Before the Ohio Republican’s announcement this morning, a shutdown seemed imminent. A budget that eliminated money for Planned Parenthood would have been blocked in the Senate or been vetoed by President Barack Obama, leaving the government with no money to keep nonessential programs operating.

But Boehner’s move merely delays the inevitable. Barring more surprises, the new spending agreement will expire in December. That sets up another budget fight that will overlap with the need to raise the federal debt ceiling and a vote to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank.

And lawmakers will have to do it all over again about this time next year, just ahead of the presidential election to determine Obama’s successor.

No matter who replaces Boehner, GOP infighting won’t cease. The next speaker will still be on a tightrope, trying to appease both pro-business Republicans and the more strident, more vocal tea party types.

So a shutdown remains likely at some point, though it will now probably occur later rather than sooner. When it does happen, most of the blame will fall on Republicans, much to the delight of Democrats and to the dismay of many Republican lawmakers and officials. But others in the GOP welcome a prolonged argument over the party’s future, even if it undercuts Republican chances of winning the White House next year.

When the smoke finally clears, a short-term agreement on the budget will boost federal spending for both defense and domestic programs. The spending caps of sequestration, which led to deep cuts in recent years, remain on the books, but they’ll be breached--if not next month, then later this year, when Congress looks to settle spending through Sept. 30, 2016.

The extra money will help some businesses, especially defense contractors and the legions of subcontractors that scramble for slices of nearly every government project. But the uncertainty over spending in the coming year will sow confusion and might result in job losses. If the Export-Import Bank isn’t renewed, for example, some U.S.-based companies say they will move thousands of jobs to facilities in Europe or elsewhere.

The longer Congress goes without passing a full-year budget, the more power it cedes. The short-term resolutions that have become standard in recent years allow spending priorities to be shaped by bureaucrats who have some authority to move money around inside federal agencies.

Those temporary funding measures won’t end until Obama leaves office. The political atmosphere is too poisoned, and the presidential election is too close on the calendar.

A new speaker – possibly House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the current number two – won’t speed up that process.

Senior Associate Editor Richard Sammon and Associate Editor Pamela M. Prah contributed to this report.

See Our Slide Show: 11 Common Medicare Mistakes

Most Popular

Your Guide to Roth Conversions
Special Report
Tax Breaks

Your Guide to Roth Conversions

A Kiplinger Special Report
February 25, 2021
The 25 Cheapest U.S. Cities to Live In
places to live

The 25 Cheapest U.S. Cities to Live In

Take a look at our list of American cities with the lowest costs of living. Is one of the cheapest cities in the U.S. right for you?
October 13, 2021
Gen X: How to Make Sure Your Future Self Remains Funded
personal finance

Gen X: How to Make Sure Your Future Self Remains Funded

If you’re a Gen Xer, like me, now might be the right time to talk to a financial professional to learn more about how to adjust your retirement planni…
October 20, 2021

Recommended

Business Cost Outlooks for 2022: Eight Key Sectors
Economic Forecasts

Business Cost Outlooks for 2022: Eight Key Sectors

What’s in store for all sorts of business costs in 2022?
October 12, 2021
The Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S. History
Economic Forecasts

The Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S. History

Wind, water, fire and drought have all wreaked havoc on the United States. What’s been the worst?
July 1, 2021
3 Reasons Not to Fear the Biden Tax Hikes
Politics

3 Reasons Not to Fear the Biden Tax Hikes

A lot of people are getting all worked up over President Biden's plan to raise taxes. Here are some reasons to chill.
May 3, 2021
7 Ways Biden Plans to Tax the Rich (And Maybe Some Not-So-Rich People)
Politics

7 Ways Biden Plans to Tax the Rich (And Maybe Some Not-So-Rich People)

How would wealthier Americans pay more in taxes under President Biden's American Families Plan? Let us count the ways.
April 30, 2021