Ask the Tax Editor, May 29: Will Congress Enact More Tax Changes?

Each week in our Ask the Editor series, Joy Taylor, The Kiplinger Tax Letter editor, answers questions on topics submitted by readers. This week, she's looking at four questions on whether Congress will enact more tax changes before November's mid-term elections and related topics.(Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Tax Letter or subscribe.)

1. Congress and tax changes

Question: Do you think Congress will enact more tax changes before this November's midterm elections?

Joy Taylor: No, we really don't expect any big federal tax changes to pass before November's midterm elections. That's not to say that many in Congress wouldn't like to see more tax changes. Republican taxwriters are pushing for tax legislation to supplement last year's "One Big Beautiful Bill." Meanwhile, some Democrats are offering sweeping tax plans, while others are introducing narrower proposals to curb what they see as tax schemes for the wealthy.

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Some Republicans in Congress want to use budget reconciliation to shove their tax priorities through Congress. This process has lots of technical and arcane rules, but it lets lawmakers circumvent the 60-vote filibuster rule in the Senate. Budget reconciliation requires only a simple-majority vote. Congressional Republicans used it to pass the OBBB and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, among other laws. Democrats have also used it when they controlled Congress and the White House.

Republicans are currently working on a new budget reconciliation measure, but President Trump and congressional GOP leadership want to limit its parameters to funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). There is talk on Capitol Hill about trying to push through a third reconciliation bill, but the odds of this happening before the midterm elections are middling at best.

2. Capital gains indexing

Question: I heard that Republicans are pushing to index capital gains to account for inflation each year. Can you explain what this would do and whether Congress would enact such a law?

Joy Taylor: Republican lawmakers and conservative free-market groups are pushing the White House to index capital gains to inflation each year. Essentially, this would let taxpayers increase their tax basis in appreciated assets, such as stocks and real estate, by the rate of inflation between the asset’s purchase date and the time of sale. Having a higher asset basis would result in a lower capital gain when the person sells the property, and thus a lower tax.

This idea has been bandied about for decades but is gaining steam again during President Trump’s second term in office. Over 25 organizations asked that Trump use his executive authority to annually index capital gains to inflation. And Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has introduced a bill in Congress to index capital gains to inflation.

We don't think Congress will enact a law this year to index capital gains to inflation. But the concept might make Trump's regulatory agenda. If Trump does this through the Department of the Treasury, and not with legislation, it would be controversial and would almost certainly face legal backlash. We don’t know where Trump stands on the idea. During his first term in office, he first supported capital gains indexing, and later he opposed it.

3. Gain on home sales

Question: I heard there were bills in Congress to fully eliminate the taxation of gain when homeowners sell their primary residence. What are the odds that Congress would pass such a proposal?

Joy Taylor: Under current law, if you have owned and lived in your principal residence for at least two out of the five years before you sell the home, up to $250,000 of the gain is tax-free. The tax-free home sale gain exclusion is $500,000 for married couples filing a joint return. Any gain in excess of these amounts is taxed at long-term capital gains rates of 0%, 15% or 20%, with possibly an extra 3.8% tax.

Many sellers won't crack the gain exclusion limits. But homeowners living in pricey areas or who have owned their home for a long time may. One reason for this is that the home-sale exclusion, unlike many other breaks in the tax code, isn't indexed to inflation each year. The gain-exclusion amounts of $250,000 and $500,000 have stayed the same since 1997, when they were first enacted into law. They have never been adjusted for the skyrocketing appreciation in value of residential real estate during the nearly 30 years this tax break has been in effect.

It is true that some Republican lawmakers want to make all gain on home sales tax-free and have introduced proposals in Congress to this effect. President Trump has even dangled this idea. But we don't see this coming to fruition any time soon. These types of proposals would put a huge dent in federal revenue and would mainly benefit upper-income individuals.

A more feasible legislative option might be to raise the current $250,000 and $500,000 gain-exclusion amounts. Two bills would increase the exclusion to $500,000 ($1 million for joint filers). The identical bipartisan proposals, which were introduced by House Representative Jimmy Panetta (D-CA) and Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), would also index the amounts to inflation each year. The odds of enactment are better than they have been in past years, but it is still a steep climb. Neither of these bills will be enacted as a stand-alone law, so it must be attached to a bigger piece of must-pass legislation.

4. Health premium tax credit

Question: Do you think Congress will bring back the pre-2026 expansions to the health premium tax credit?

Joy Taylor: We think the odds of Congress reaching a deal on health premium tax credits ("PTC") are quite slim. The PTC is for eligible people who buy insurance through the marketplace. Temporary easings, which were enacted during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and later renewed, ended after 2025. Prior to 2021, the PTC was available to people with modified adjusted gross incomes ranging from 100% to 400% of the poverty level. For 2021-25, some people with higher modified AGIs also qualified, and the credit was bigger for many individuals. Beginning January 1, 2026, the PTC rules reverted to those in place for pre-2021 years.

Democrats want the pre-2026 PTC expansions cleanly extended. Republicans want changes made to narrow the scope of the PTC. The parties appeared close to an agreement earlier this year, but talks have stalled as Congress’s attention is diverted elsewhere.

About Ask the Editor, Tax Edition

Subscribers of The Kiplinger Tax Letter, The Kiplinger Letter and The Kiplinger Retirement Report can ask Joy questions about tax topics. You'll find full details of how to submit questions in each publication. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Tax Letter, The Kiplinger Letter or The Kiplinger Retirement Report.

We have already received many questions from readers on topics related to tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill, retirement accounts and more. We will continue to answer these in future Ask the Editor roundups. So keep those questions coming!

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