If you've been watching the news lately — or even just checking your 401(k) balance — it's normal to feel uneasy.
We're seeing tariff battles flaring up, conflicts overseas dragging on, inflation gnawing at purchasing power, even murmurs of another world war. I've had more than a few clients call me recently and ask, "Is this the beginning of the end?"
You're not wrong to feel concerned. But you're also not without options — or context.
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We've been here before
Since 1996, we have been helping clients through:
The dot-com bubble and crash (1995-2002). Fueled by excitement about internet-based business, technology was soaring in the late 1990s — companies with little to no revenue received sky-high valuations.
The Nasdaq reached its peak in March 2000, rising above 5,000. By 2002, the Nasdaq crashed nearly 80%, erasing trillions of dollars in market value. Many companies went bankrupt, and investor confidence in technology was shaken for years.
This highlighted the danger of speculative investing and the importance of fundamentals.
The global financial crisis (2007-2009). Fueled by the housing market collapse, subprime mortgage defaults spread into the broader financial systems. The S&P 500 lost more than 50% of its value from its 2007 peak to the 2009 trough.
Panic led to widespread selling and government bailouts — reinforcing the need for diversification and risk management.
The COVID-19 pandemic crash and recovery (2020). The world endured severe economic uncertainty amid global lockdowns, halted travel and business closures. The S&P 500 fell more than 30% in just a few weeks (February to March 2020).
Massive fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates fueled a rapid V-shaped recovery, with markets reaching all-time highs by late 2020.
Many adjustments are still impacted today, by way of monetary policy, work culture, e-commerce and new adoption of technology.
Each time, the world felt a little off its axis, and that's hard to forget.
But here's the key takeaway: Every time, we recovered — not immediately, not painlessly, but consistently. From 2009 to 2021, the S&P 500 returned nearly 16% per year, on average. Those who stayed the course were rewarded.
What's different — and what's not
No two crises are identical. Today's landscape brings its own mix of challenges:
- Global instability. Conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the South China Sea aren't just headlines; they're market movers.
- Economic friction. Trade tensions and interest rate hikes have created real pressure on growth.
- Domestic tension. From labor strikes to political paralysis, the U.S. feels as if it's holding its breath.
What's not different: Underneath all this, we still have a resilient economy. Companies are innovating. Consumers are spending. AI, biotech, and clean energy aren't just buzzwords — they're building the next economic cycle.
If you're near or in retirement, read this twice
When markets turn volatile, the instinct to do something is strong. But reacting emotionally can be the costliest move you make.
Time and again, some of the best market days come right after the worst. To illustrate this, the graphic below shows the impact of missing the best market days in the last 30 years.
You don't need to be reckless, but you do need a plan grounded in discipline.
Five moves that make sense right now
1. Review your income plan. Make sure you've got 12 to 24 months of essential living expenses in something liquid — high-quality bonds or cash equivalents. This reduces the need to sell investments in a down market.
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2. Use a bucket approach. You can separate short-term needs from longer-term investments. It will help you stay invested for growth without sacrificing sleep.
3. Rebalance, don't retreat. Market dips often create opportunities. Rebalancing your portfolio can lock in gains, reduce risk and position you for the rebound.
4. Be intentional about taxes. Volatility opens the door for tax-loss harvesting or even converting some traditional IRA dollars to Roth IRAs. QCDs, for those age 70½ and older, are another great tool.
5. Plan for longevity. Many of us are living well into our 90s. That means a 65-year-old retiree still has a 25-to-30-year investment horizon. You'll likely need some growth exposure to maintain purchasing power over time.
Final thoughts
It's not about predicting the next 12 months. It's about preparing for the next 20 years.
Resilience isn't just an economic concept — it's a mindset. Things are uncertain right now. But history favors those who stay focused, stay calm and stay committed to their plans.
Sources: Bloomberg, Morningstar, JP Morgan Guide to the Markets (2024), Federal Reserve Economic Data.
Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed insurance products and services are separate from and not offered through Commonwealth Financial Network. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®. CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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