With the midterms fast approaching, Republicans are poised to gain enough seats to take back both the House and Senate and serve as a check on the Biden administration.
How to account for the recent GOP surge? First, it was supposed to be a Republican year. The president’s party almost always takes a beating during the midterms. So, it should be no surprise that political conditions shifted back in favor of the GOP, following a temporary Democratic upswing earlier this fall.
According to Real Clear Politics, Republicans currently have about a three-point advantage on the generic ballot, a rough proxy for which party voters want to control Congress, after trailing Democrats for much of September.
Second, President Biden remains unpopular, with an average approval rating of around 43%. That’s better than it was this summer, when only 37% of voters, on average, thought Biden was doing a good job, but not enough to prevent big Democratic losses at the ballot box.
Moreover, Biden’s approval rating has started to drift lower again, with high inflation likely to persist for 2022. What does this mean in terms of how many seats Republicans will win? In the House, expect a net GOP gain of at least 20 seats, slightly greater than our September estimate (15), but slightly below our initial spring forecast (25). “At least” accounts for the fact that Republicans could build on their advantage in the final days and flip even more seats.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Remember, Republicans need to gain only five seats to retake the House. In the Senate, the GOP needs to flip one seat without losing any of theirs. We think they will, but it will be close. The three Democratic-held seats most at risk: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, where the Republican candidate either leads or is within the margin of error.
2022 voter turnout remains a wildcard
Democrats at one point were heavily favored to flip Republican-held Pennsylvania, but health problems have dogged Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and helped his GOP opponent, Mehmet Oz, close the gap. Wisconsin, another seat that Democrats hoped to flip, has also trended toward Republicans in recent weeks.
One factor that hasn’t changed, despite the various twists and turns: Voter turnout in the midterms is expected to reach record highs, which could upset our expectations, rooted in previous, low-turnout midterms. For example, younger voters showing up in greater-than-usual numbers could give Democrats a boost, though older GOP-friendly voters are also fired up.
-
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Head South as Treasury Yields Hit New Highs
Expectations for another potential rate hike sent yields on both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds to their highest levels in almost two decades.
-
Biden Cancels $37M in Student Loan Debt for Phoenix University Borrowers
Student loans for 1,200+ Phoenix University enrollees cancelled over misleading ad campaign.
-
Investments In U.S.-Made Drone Technology Are Gaining Strength — The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The U.S.-Made drone aircraft, software sector has been boosted by a crackdown on Chinese drones amid security concerns.
-
Congress Races to Pass a Spending Bill as a Gov. Shutdown Looms — The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter McCarthy faces push-back from Congress and moderate House Republicans as they move to avoid a Gov. shutdown
-
State Legislators Are Switching Parties at a Fast Rate: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Switching is pacing well above the 30-year average, with Dems losing more than the GOP.
-
Do UFOs Exist? Congress Will Push Defense Department to Tell All: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts After a first round of hearings, Congress will continue to push the Department of Defense to share what it knows about UFOs and UAPs.
-
Could Third-Party Candidates Sway the Election?: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts The 2024 presidential election could see third-party candidates chip away at Democrat votes in tight Biden districts.
-
Opportunity Zones in 2023: A Look Back, a Look Forward
Is now the perfect storm for investors? Don’t take your eye off the ball — investing in opportunity zones is well situated to offer meaningful tax benefits to knowledgeable investors.
-
Stock Market Today: Dow Dives 697 Points After Home Depot Revenue Miss
While Home Depot earnings disappointed, fellow blue-chip retailer Walmart climbed after its quarterly results.
-
The 1031 Exchange Rules You Need to Know
Taxes are an inevitable part of investing in real estate. You can, however, defer or avoid paying capital gains taxes by following some simple rules of a 1031 exchange. Yes, you read that correctly!
