An Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Race
Two months out, Harris and Trump are neck and neck.
To help you understand what's going on in U.S. politics and the presidential election, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
With the presidential election only two months away, the race is a toss-up.
Democrat Kamala Harris has momentum on her side. She holds the lead in many crucial national and swing-state polls after taking over for President Biden at the top of the ticket and is riding high following the party convention in Chicago. Republican Donald Trump is playing catch-up but is still in a position to win.
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The magic number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency is 270. Harris is currently favored to win 226, compared with 219 for Trump. Both candidates have successfully consolidated their bases of support in safe states. That leaves 93 up for grabs. The list of swing states includes familiar names like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennslyvania and Wisconsin. All five states backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The first two are cases where Democrats gained white suburban voters who previously voted GOP. The latter three were longtime Democratic strongholds that Trump put in play by winning over the opposition’s white working-class voters.
Others could be signs of shifting political winds. Take Nevada. The Silver State has gone blue in every presidential election since 2008. But polls show a tight race, stemming in part from Democrats’ recent struggles among Latino voters. Also, North Carolina which has reliably voted Republican in the last three presidential cycles. However, recent surveys suggest Harris could win the Tar Heel State. Improving her odds: The presence of unpopular Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R), now seeking the top job. Harris is hoping to forge her own identity as a candidate apart from Biden, while simultaneously rehabilitating his legacy, tarnished by a run of high inflation. Trump is betting that voters will remember the best years of his presidency, while forgetting the way it ended, with a global pandemic and unrest in Washington.
Other political races
Control of the House will likely go to whichever party wins the presidency. Democrats would need to net seven seats to win control of the chamber, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority. The party has gotten some help from court-ordered redistricting, which has put previously safe GOP districts in play.
Republicans have a far better chance of flipping the Senate. They have math on their side. The GOP is defending only 11 seats this cycle, versus the Democrats’ 23. What’s more, several of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won. Whichever parties win these chambers will have narrow margins of control.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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