Taking Stock of the Presidential Race: The Kiplinger Letter
As Trump consolidates Republicans, Biden faces pressure to drop out.
To help you understand what is going on in politics, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
In the aftermath of an assassination attempt on former President Trump, the first time in 40 years that either an officeholder or a candidate has been shot, let’s take stock of the presidential race.
Donald Trump dodged a bullet last week, escaping from a campaign rally in Pennsylvania with only minor injuries after a shooter’s bullet grazed his ear and ultimately killed an attendee. The country narrowly averted a tragedy. And a crisis. There is no telling what would have transpired, had Trump been killed.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Now, Trump wants to strike a new tone, promising a more unifying message to voters amid an election year already marked by rancor. Color us skeptical. Previous Trump attempts to rein in his natural, combative style haven’t lasted.
Many voters appreciate his confrontational instincts. Trump will likely benefit if he can pull it off.
Either way, he will receive a jolt of support in the short term, stemming from both the attempt on his life and a presidential candidate’s usual bump in the polls after his or her party’s convention. His pick of Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) as running mate suggests that Trump is still interested in having a vice president who knows how to go on the offensive against Democrats.
Recent events have done little to relieve the pressure on President Biden. He has been bleeding support from congressional Democrats — plus voters and donors — concerned about his age and performance in recent public appearances.
The president has very few heavy hitters in his corner. Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the influential former House speaker, is among those encouraging him to drop out.
Biden has remained stubborn and will likely hold out as long as he can, perhaps long enough to officially secure the nomination at the Democratic convention. But there are signs his resolve is wavering, as the backlash within his party intensifies. It’s tough for even the stubbornest of politicians to survive without friends.
Trump continues to lead in most national and battleground state polls. But the bottom has not yet dropped out for Biden, bolstering his case for staying in the race, even as voters increasingly prefer veep Kamala Harris.
One possible indicator that Biden really is losing the race to Trump: Democratic Senate candidates are generally polling well in swing states and those that backed Trump by a significant margin (with some notable exceptions). This could be a sign that voters want and/or expect Trump to win in November and would like more Democratic senators to serve as a check on the White House. Democrats are also roughly tied with Republicans on the generic ballot, a rough measure of which party voters would prefer to be in control of Congress.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.
-
Why Uber Stock Is Volatile After GM's Cruise Announcement
Uber stock is swinging this week following news that General Motors is restructuring its Cruise unit. Here's what you need to know.
By Joey Solitro Published
-
UnitedHealth Stock Falls as Lawmakers Eye Insurers, PBMs
UnitedHealth stock is continuing to fall Thursday after the introduction of bipartisan legislation targeting PBMs and healthcare giants. Here's what to know.
By Joey Solitro Published
-
Biden's Lame-Duck Agenda
The Letter President Biden rushes to tie up loose ends before Trump takes over.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
Could Millions of Taxpayers Be Facing the AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) in 2025?
Tax Letter Millions of taxpayers could owe the AMT if Congress allows the tax breaks de-fanged in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to expire.
By Joy Taylor Published
-
What Trump Will Do Next
The Letter President-elect Trump begins his second term with a busy regulatory agenda.
By Matthew Housiaux Last updated
-
Tax Changes are on Trump's 2025 To-Do List
The Tax Letter Donald Trump campaigned on lower taxes and, as president, he will push Congress to pass big tax changes next year
By Joy Taylor Published
-
Harris vs. Trump's Tax Wish List: Income Tax, Capital Gains, Estate Tax and More
The Tax Letter Take a comprehensive look at Harris and Trump's tax proposals. We cover income tax rates, tax credits and deductions, capital gains tax, estate tax, corporate tax and much more
By Joy Taylor Published
-
What are Trump's Positions on Capital Gains Taxes?
The Tax Letter Harris and Trump have different views on taxing capital gains. See what Trump said he would do if elected to the White House.
By Joy Taylor Last updated
-
The Key Presidential Campaign Issues of 2024
The Letter Donald Trump and Kamala Harris stake out their positions on trade, immigration, and taxes.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
Changes to Estate Tax Are Coming... Six Options Congress Could Take
The Tax Letter An important estate tax change is looming. Here are six ways that Congress might address estate taxes in 2025.
By Joy Taylor Published