Taking Stock of the Presidential Race: The Kiplinger Letter
As Trump consolidates Republicans, Biden faces pressure to drop out.


To help you understand what is going on in politics, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
In the aftermath of an assassination attempt on former President Trump, the first time in 40 years that either an officeholder or a candidate has been shot, let’s take stock of the presidential race.
Donald Trump dodged a bullet last week, escaping from a campaign rally in Pennsylvania with only minor injuries after a shooter’s bullet grazed his ear and ultimately killed an attendee. The country narrowly averted a tragedy. And a crisis. There is no telling what would have transpired, had Trump been killed.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Now, Trump wants to strike a new tone, promising a more unifying message to voters amid an election year already marked by rancor. Color us skeptical. Previous Trump attempts to rein in his natural, combative style haven’t lasted.
Many voters appreciate his confrontational instincts. Trump will likely benefit if he can pull it off.
Either way, he will receive a jolt of support in the short term, stemming from both the attempt on his life and a presidential candidate’s usual bump in the polls after his or her party’s convention. His pick of Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) as running mate suggests that Trump is still interested in having a vice president who knows how to go on the offensive against Democrats.
Recent events have done little to relieve the pressure on President Biden. He has been bleeding support from congressional Democrats — plus voters and donors — concerned about his age and performance in recent public appearances.
The president has very few heavy hitters in his corner. Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the influential former House speaker, is among those encouraging him to drop out.
Biden has remained stubborn and will likely hold out as long as he can, perhaps long enough to officially secure the nomination at the Democratic convention. But there are signs his resolve is wavering, as the backlash within his party intensifies. It’s tough for even the stubbornest of politicians to survive without friends.
Trump continues to lead in most national and battleground state polls. But the bottom has not yet dropped out for Biden, bolstering his case for staying in the race, even as voters increasingly prefer veep Kamala Harris.
One possible indicator that Biden really is losing the race to Trump: Democratic Senate candidates are generally polling well in swing states and those that backed Trump by a significant margin (with some notable exceptions). This could be a sign that voters want and/or expect Trump to win in November and would like more Democratic senators to serve as a check on the White House. Democrats are also roughly tied with Republicans on the generic ballot, a rough measure of which party voters would prefer to be in control of Congress.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.
-
Stagflation: What It Is and Why Retirees Should Care
Stagflation — the economic bogeyman of the 1970's — may return to the US. Here's what it could mean to your retirement.
By Donna Fuscaldo Published
-
Why Losing Your Job Could Be the Best Opportunity to Plan Your Future
Amid this uncertainty lies an opportunity for strategic reassessment and personal growth.
By Mario Hernandez Published
-
‘Are You Better Off Than You Were 71 Days Ago?’ Cory Booker Historic Senate Speech Highlights Tax Debate
Tax Policy A speech protesting Trump’s policies, including tax plans, breaks U.S. Senate records.
By Kelley R. Taylor Last updated
-
Congressional Republicans Tackle Trump's Agenda
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slim majorities in both chambers, the GOP is gearing up to overhaul taxes, border security and more.
By Sean Lengell Published
-
What DOGE is Doing Now
The Kiplinger Letter As Musk's DOGE pursues its ambitious agenda, uncertainty and legal challenges are mounting — causing frustration for Trump.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
A Move Away From Free Trade
The Letter President Trump says long-term gain will be worth short-term pain, but the pain could be significant this year.
By David Payne Published
-
Trump’s Whirlwind Month of Crypto Moves
The Kiplinger Letter The Trump administration wants to strengthen U.S. leadership in the cryptocurrency industry by providing regulatory clarity.
By Rodrigo Sermeño Published
-
Trump's Foreign Policy Overhaul
The Kiplinger Letter Trump’s return as president sees the commander in chief aiming to complete the shift to an “America first” policy that started in his first term.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
AMT and Pass-Throughs Add Complex Layers to 2025 SALT Tax Planning
The Tax Letter The state and local tax (SALT) deduction is a key sticking point in President Trump's tax plan.
By Joy Taylor Published
-
Donald Trump Tests His Limits
The Kiplinger Letter President Encounters Legal Obstacles in Pursuit of Ambitious Agenda.
By Matthew Housiaux Published