What's next for U.S. politics? Prepare for spending fights and highly contested House seats in the 2024 election. To help you understand what is going on and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly-experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest...
A recent Supreme Court ruling will upend the 2024 House elections. In a 5-4 decision, the Court struck down an Alabama congressional map and will require the state to include a second predominantly black district in its redrawn congressional map under the Voting Rights Act.
As a result, Republicans will lose a handful of seats in various Southern states, most notably Alabama, but odds are Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina will also be affected. Look for Democrats to gain anywhere from two to four House seats as a result of this ruling and its effect on other racial gerrymandering cases.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The GOP currently has a slim, 10-seat majority in the chamber, so even a few extra Democratic seats could threaten Republicans’ hold.
The usual congressional fights over spending will be even worse this year. Lawmakers will struggle to navigate binding caps on discretionary spending that will be in effect for the next two years because of the recent debt-limit deal.
Nondefense discretionary spending will be roughly flat in fiscal year 2024 and will increase by 1% in 2025, effectively a budget cut, once inflation is factored in. Defense discretionary spending will increase by 3.3% in the next fiscal year, followed by a smaller, 1% increase in FY 2025, the same as nondefense spending.
Plus, several House Republicans want to go below the agreed-to caps and are now twisting the arm of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to side with them. But even if McCarthy backs the hard-line members of his caucus, legislation that cuts spending so severely would go nowhere in the Democrat-controlled Senate. The situation increases the odds of a government shutdown this fall.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
-
AI Stocks Lead Nasdaq's 398-Point Nosedive: Stock Market TodayThe major stock market indexes do not yet reflect the bullish tendencies of sector rotation and broadening participation.
-
Top Tech Gifts to Grab at Walmart Before ChristmasBig savings on Apple, Bose, HP, Vizio and more while there's still time to shop.
-
AI Appliances Aren’t Exciting Buyers…YetThe Kiplinger Letter Artificial intelligence is being embedded into all sorts of appliances. Now sellers need to get customers to care about AI-powered laundry.
-
What Services Are Open During the Government Shutdown?The Kiplinger Letter As the shutdown drags on, many basic federal services will increasingly be affected.
-
Banks Are Sounding the Alarm About StablecoinsThe Kiplinger Letter The banking industry says stablecoins could have a negative impact on lending.
-
Trump's Economic InterventionThe Kiplinger Letter What to Make of Washington's Increasingly Hands-On Approach to Big Business
-
What is AI Worth to the Economy?The Letter Spending on AI is already boosting GDP, but will the massive outlays being poured into the technology deliver faster economic growth in the long run?
-
More Shutdown Struggles Ahead for Divided Congress
The Kiplinger Letter Failure to pass a government funding bill by September 30 would trigger a shutdown of many federal services.
-
Trump-Era Regulations Will Broaden Access to CryptoThe Kiplinger Letter The president wants to make the U.S. the leader in digital assets.
-
Big Changes Are Ahead for Higher EdThe Kiplinger Letter A major reform of higher ed is underway. Colleges are bracing for abrupt change, financial headwinds and uncertainty.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth ElementsThe Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
