What's next for U.S. politics? Prepare for spending fights and highly contested House seats in the 2024 election. To help you understand what is going on and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly-experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest...
A recent Supreme Court ruling will upend the 2024 House elections. In a 5-4 decision, the Court struck down an Alabama congressional map and will require the state to include a second predominantly black district in its redrawn congressional map under the Voting Rights Act.
As a result, Republicans will lose a handful of seats in various Southern states, most notably Alabama, but odds are Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina will also be affected. Look for Democrats to gain anywhere from two to four House seats as a result of this ruling and its effect on other racial gerrymandering cases.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The GOP currently has a slim, 10-seat majority in the chamber, so even a few extra Democratic seats could threaten Republicans’ hold.
The usual congressional fights over spending will be even worse this year. Lawmakers will struggle to navigate binding caps on discretionary spending that will be in effect for the next two years because of the recent debt-limit deal.
Nondefense discretionary spending will be roughly flat in fiscal year 2024 and will increase by 1% in 2025, effectively a budget cut, once inflation is factored in. Defense discretionary spending will increase by 3.3% in the next fiscal year, followed by a smaller, 1% increase in FY 2025, the same as nondefense spending.
Plus, several House Republicans want to go below the agreed-to caps and are now twisting the arm of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to side with them. But even if McCarthy backs the hard-line members of his caucus, legislation that cuts spending so severely would go nowhere in the Democrat-controlled Senate. The situation increases the odds of a government shutdown this fall.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
-
The Y Rule of Retirement: Why Men Need to Plan DifferentlyIf you have a Y chromosome (because you're a guy), following the 'Y rule of retirement' can help you transition to this new life stage with grace.
-
Retire on This Island for Mediterranean Living on the CheapThis independent nation has a lower cost of living and more visa options than many of its Mediterranean cousins.
-
Big Changes Are Ahead for Higher EdThe Kiplinger Letter A major reform of higher ed is underway. Colleges are bracing for abrupt change, financial headwinds and uncertainty.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth ElementsThe Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
-
Will State Laws Hurt AI’s Future?The Kiplinger Letter Republicans in Congress are considering a moratorium on state AI laws. But it’s likely a growing patchwork of state AI regulations will be here for a while.
-
AI Goes To SchoolThe Kiplinger Letter Artificial intelligence is rapidly heading to K-12 classrooms nationwide. Expect tech companies to cash in on the fast-emerging trend.
-
The IRS is in ChaosThe Tax Letter DOGE, departures, data agreements and more are creating havoc at the IRS.
-
Trump's Second 100 DaysThe Kiplinger Letter President Trump's agenda faces legal and legislative roadblocks.
-
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade War
The Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
-
Trump Dials Back Most Tariffs but Targets ChinaThe Kiplinger Letter Wall Street hopes that higher tariffs on most countries are on hold for good. But the trade war between the U.S. and China is heating up.
