To help you understand what is going on in politics and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
The odds of the Republicans retaking the Senate this fall continue to improve. The Democrats already faced a daunting task, defending 23 seats this year — three in states won by Donald Trump in 2020 — versus only 11 seats for the GOP.
The party has done well with candidate recruitment. In Wisconsin, for one, wealthy banker Eric Hovde will be the most formidable Republican in some time to take on incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). The Montana GOP avoided a messy primary fight and is now unified behind Trump endorsee Tim Sheehy, who will face Jon Tester (D). Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick will try for Bob Casey’s (D) seat in Pennsylvania.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
At least one Senate seat is almost certain to flip: West Virginia. The GOP nominee should easily dispatch the Democratic opponent, given Joe Manchin’s (D) retirement. Others are more difficult to handicap at this point.
In wildcard Arizona, the GOP is going all in on backing Kari Lake, a far cry from her failed 2022 gubernatorial race when the national party kept the outspoken Trump supporter at arm’s length. Her likely Democratic opponent is Rep. Ruben Gallego. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who switched to independent status in late 2022, has announced she won’t run for reelection.
Republicans also have put themselves in winnable positions in other Senate battleground states:
Ohio Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown holds slim leads in polling against several Republican candidates in a race that’s considered a tossup.
In Nevada, another tossup state, Republican Sam Brown is polling neck and neck with incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D).
And keep an eye on Maryland, where popular former Governor Larry Hogan is running for the Republican nomination. Even Hogan may not be able to win in deep-blue Maryland, but he will force Democrats to devote precious time and resources to the state.
Note that the GOP needs to pick up only two seats to retake the chamber, and only one if a Republican is elected president.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
- The 2024 Race for President Looks Like a Rematch: The Kiplinger Letter
- 10 Predictions for 2024 from The Kiplinger Letter
- Republicans vs Republicans, the Widening Division: The Kiplinger Letter
- Democrats and Republicans Sidestep Tensions In Their Parties: The Kiplinger Letter
- The GOP Field of Presidential Candidates Is Shrinking Fast: The Kiplinger Letter
-
Dow Adds 646 Points, Hits New Highs: Stock Market TodayIt was "boom" for the Dow but "bust" for the Nasdaq following a December Fed meeting that was less hawkish than expected.
-
5 Types of Gifts the IRS Won’t Tax: Even If They’re BigGift Tax Several categories of gifts don’t count toward annual gift tax limits. Here's what you need to know.
-
The 'Scrooge' Strategy: How to Turn Your Old Junk Into a Tax DeductionTax Deductions We break down the IRS rules for non-cash charitable contributions. Plus, here's a handy checklist before you donate to charity this year.
-
What Services Are Open During the Government Shutdown?The Kiplinger Letter As the shutdown drags on, many basic federal services will increasingly be affected.
-
Banks Are Sounding the Alarm About StablecoinsThe Kiplinger Letter The banking industry says stablecoins could have a negative impact on lending.
-
Trump's Economic InterventionThe Kiplinger Letter What to Make of Washington's Increasingly Hands-On Approach to Big Business
-
What is AI Worth to the Economy?The Letter Spending on AI is already boosting GDP, but will the massive outlays being poured into the technology deliver faster economic growth in the long run?
-
More Shutdown Struggles Ahead for Divided Congress
The Kiplinger Letter Failure to pass a government funding bill by September 30 would trigger a shutdown of many federal services.
-
Trump-Era Regulations Will Broaden Access to CryptoThe Kiplinger Letter The president wants to make the U.S. the leader in digital assets.
-
Big Changes Are Ahead for Higher EdThe Kiplinger Letter A major reform of higher ed is underway. Colleges are bracing for abrupt change, financial headwinds and uncertainty.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth ElementsThe Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
