Democrats and Republicans Sidestep Tensions In Their Parties: The Kiplinger Letter
The country may be stuck with a closely divided House and a closely divided Senate for the foreseeable future.
To help you understand what’s happening on the Hill, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
One thing that the recent fight over the House speakership has proved, centrist Republicans are increasingly willing to fight back after years of allowing the right-wing Freedom Caucus to take center stage in GOP politics.
The centrists flexed their muscles most recently against Rep. Jim Jordan, the Ohio Republican who whiffed on three attempts to become the next speaker despite mounting a significant pressure campaign against those who opposed him. The group is a strange grab bag of lawmakers, ranging from moderates representing competitive districts to incumbents inclined toward pragmatism.
Time will tell whether their influence will grow or remain a temporary blip. But for now, it will make the House GOP even more difficult to manage since the Freedom Caucus, used to getting its way, will also remain assertive.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
And as House Republicans attempt to recover from their intraparty conflict, Senate Democrats have managed to sidestep a greater schism in California, now that Laphonza Butler, appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy left by the death of Dianne Feinstein, has confirmed she will not run for a full term. Had she done so, Butler would have had an immediate advantage as the incumbent and would have exacerbated already heightened tensions within the candidate field.
As a result, the Senate Democratic primary will remain a three-horse race. Of the candidates, we give Adam Schiff a slight edge over Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, all of whom currently serve in the House. At this point, Schiff leads in most polls, has many establishment connections and is a prodigious fund-raiser, though Porter is still within striking distance, with Lee placing a distant third. Neither of the trailing candidates can be counted out. But they’re running out of time.
While Democrats will win the Senate election, no matter the candidate, don’t overlook other possible ramifications. For example, Porter’s district remains competitive and could represent a pickup opportunity for the Republicans.
Meanwhile, after 22 days without a House speaker amid intense Republican infighting, the party finally found someone it could stomach: Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA). Johnson is relatively unknown in D.C., with no senior leadership experience and little time for on-the-job training now, as many pressing legislative battles loom. The new speaker’s first big challenge will be avoiding a government shutdown. A continuing resolution passed at the end of September is set to expire on November 17. He must also navigate tricky partisan waters on military aid for Ukraine and Israel.
Expect Johnson to hang on to the gavel, at least for a while. A conservative, he appeals to right-wing Republicans on policy and will get a fairly long leash from them. At the same time, his measured temperament appeals to moderates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related Content
To continue reading this article
please register for free
This is different from signing in to your print subscription
Why am I seeing this? Find out more here
Sean Lengell covers Congress and government policy for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in January 2017 he served as a congressional reporter for eight years with the Washington Examiner and the Washington Times. He previously covered local news for the Tampa (Fla.) Tribune. A native of northern Illinois who spent much of his youth in St. Petersburg, Fla., he holds a bachelor's degree in English from Marquette University.
-
Earn Delta SkyMiles Worth Up to $1,800 with an AMEX Business Card
Delta SkyMiles and American Express offer 150,000 on business credit card for new cardholders.
By Ellen Kennedy Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Soar Amid Strong Earnings for Big Tech
Equities ended the week on an up note thanks to some of the market's biggest names.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Who Will Replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican Leader?
The Kiplinger Letter The runners and riders to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican leader are lining up...
By Sean Lengell Published
-
Top 10 Tax Expenditures in 2024: The Tax Letter
The Tax Letter Costly tax breaks will likely come under scrutiny from lawmakers trying to reduce the national debt. We review the 10 largest individual tax expenditures.
By Joy Taylor Published
-
Odds of Republicans Retaking the Senate Gain Momentum: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter With the Democrats facing an uphill task, all eyes are on the Republicans in the race to take the Senate.
By Sean Lengell Published
-
H-1B Work Visa Rules Get a Revamp
The Kiplinger Letter H-1B visas allow employers to hire high-skilled foreign workers. Regulators have finalized new rules for this visa program following last fall's proposal.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
Congress is Busy. And Dysfunctional.
The Kiplinger Letter With important must-pass legislation up against intraparty fighting, the question is whether dysfunction or democracy will win.
By Sean Lengell Published
-
Current Challenges Highlight U.S. Foreign Policy Weakness: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter America’s military is overextended but the U.S. remains the country of first resort when major problems crop up.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
The 2024 Race for President Looks Like a Rematch: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Nine months away from Election Day 2024, the presidential field has narrowed and a 2020 rematch is almost certain.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
As Foreign Policy Battles Ramp Up, is the U.S. Defense Industry Ready?
The Kiplinger Letter As the threat landscape heats up, this special issue of the Kiplinger Letter reviews the challenges facing the defense industry.
By Matthew Housiaux Published