To help you understand what’s happening on the Hill, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
One thing that the recent fight over the House speakership has proved, centrist Republicans are increasingly willing to fight back after years of allowing the right-wing Freedom Caucus to take center stage in GOP politics.
The centrists flexed their muscles most recently against Rep. Jim Jordan, the Ohio Republican who whiffed on three attempts to become the next speaker despite mounting a significant pressure campaign against those who opposed him. The group is a strange grab bag of lawmakers, ranging from moderates representing competitive districts to incumbents inclined toward pragmatism.
Time will tell whether their influence will grow or remain a temporary blip. But for now, it will make the House GOP even more difficult to manage since the Freedom Caucus, used to getting its way, will also remain assertive.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
And as House Republicans attempt to recover from their intraparty conflict, Senate Democrats have managed to sidestep a greater schism in California, now that Laphonza Butler, appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy left by the death of Dianne Feinstein, has confirmed she will not run for a full term. Had she done so, Butler would have had an immediate advantage as the incumbent and would have exacerbated already heightened tensions within the candidate field.
As a result, the Senate Democratic primary will remain a three-horse race. Of the candidates, we give Adam Schiff a slight edge over Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, all of whom currently serve in the House. At this point, Schiff leads in most polls, has many establishment connections and is a prodigious fund-raiser, though Porter is still within striking distance, with Lee placing a distant third. Neither of the trailing candidates can be counted out. But they’re running out of time.
While Democrats will win the Senate election, no matter the candidate, don’t overlook other possible ramifications. For example, Porter’s district remains competitive and could represent a pickup opportunity for the Republicans.
Meanwhile, after 22 days without a House speaker amid intense Republican infighting, the party finally found someone it could stomach: Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA). Johnson is relatively unknown in D.C., with no senior leadership experience and little time for on-the-job training now, as many pressing legislative battles loom. The new speaker’s first big challenge will be avoiding a government shutdown. A continuing resolution passed at the end of September is set to expire on November 17. He must also navigate tricky partisan waters on military aid for Ukraine and Israel.
Expect Johnson to hang on to the gavel, at least for a while. A conservative, he appeals to right-wing Republicans on policy and will get a fairly long leash from them. At the same time, his measured temperament appeals to moderates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related Content
-
JPMorgan's Drop Drags on the Dow: Stock Market TodaySmall-cap stocks outperformed Tuesday on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on Wednesday.
-
Why Playing It Safe in Retirement Is a Big RiskFear of losing money could actually cost you in retirement. Find out why being too conservative with your life savings can hurt you and how to stop that from happening.
-
Tax Refund Alert: House GOP Predicts 'Average' $1,000 Payouts in 2026Tax Refunds Here's how the IRS tax refund outlook for 2026 is changing and what steps you can take now to prepare.
-
What Services Are Open During the Government Shutdown?The Kiplinger Letter As the shutdown drags on, many basic federal services will increasingly be affected.
-
Banks Are Sounding the Alarm About StablecoinsThe Kiplinger Letter The banking industry says stablecoins could have a negative impact on lending.
-
Trump's Economic InterventionThe Kiplinger Letter What to Make of Washington's Increasingly Hands-On Approach to Big Business
-
What is AI Worth to the Economy?The Letter Spending on AI is already boosting GDP, but will the massive outlays being poured into the technology deliver faster economic growth in the long run?
-
More Shutdown Struggles Ahead for Divided Congress
The Kiplinger Letter Failure to pass a government funding bill by September 30 would trigger a shutdown of many federal services.
-
Trump-Era Regulations Will Broaden Access to CryptoThe Kiplinger Letter The president wants to make the U.S. the leader in digital assets.
-
Big Changes Are Ahead for Higher EdThe Kiplinger Letter A major reform of higher ed is underway. Colleges are bracing for abrupt change, financial headwinds and uncertainty.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth ElementsThe Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
