To help you understand what is going on in Washington, across state governments and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly-experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest...
State lawmakers are switching parties at a faster clip than usual this year, with Democrats suffering the most defections so far. At the end of July, 10 state legislators had switched parties — half of them Democrats joining the GOP, while only one Republican became a Democrat — a pace well above the 30-year average. Look for the trend to continue. While levels of party switching are unlikely to surpass the record set in 2010 — when 28 state legislators swapped parties — the last three decades have seen a clear upward trend, particularly since 2000.
The shift is a consequence of entrenched partisanship. As red states get redder and blue states bluer, the power of the minority party dwindles, increasing the temptation of lawmakers to join the majority and increase their clout. But ideological realignment of the parties has also played a major role. Since 1994, 83 state-level Democrats have become Republicans, compared with 25 Republicans who have switched to the Democratic Party. One reason for the disparity is the number of conservative Democrats in Southern states, such as Mississippi and Louisiana, who dropped their party as it moved further to the left.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
It’s not only state-level lawmakers swapping partisan affiliations. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has also suggested he may leave his party as he considers his political future. Manchin is up for reelection next year in deep-red West Virginia, where he would struggle to win a third full term as a Democrat. He also hasn’t ruled out a third-party bid for president, backed by the nonprofit No Labels.
Look for Manchin to become an independent rather than a Republican if he decides to pull the trigger, having also made several disparaging remarks about the GOP. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) has already made a similar move, becoming an independent, but still routinely voting with the Democratic Party.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related stories
-
How Apple’s Tariff Strategy Could Affect Your Next iPhone UpgradeApple’s $100 billion US expansion could shift iPhone assembly stateside — impacting pricing, availability and your next upgrade decision.
-
Your Retirement Side Hustle Starter Kit: The Essential Tools and Apps You NeedCheck out seven awesome tools and apps to jumpstart your retirement side hustle with confidence.
-
Big Changes Are Ahead for Higher EdThe Kiplinger Letter A major reform of higher ed is underway. Colleges are bracing for abrupt change, financial headwinds and uncertainty.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth ElementsThe Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
-
Will State Laws Hurt AI’s Future?The Kiplinger Letter Republicans in Congress are considering a moratorium on state AI laws. But it’s likely a growing patchwork of state AI regulations will be here for a while.
-
AI Goes To SchoolThe Kiplinger Letter Artificial intelligence is rapidly heading to K-12 classrooms nationwide. Expect tech companies to cash in on the fast-emerging trend.
-
The IRS is in ChaosThe Tax Letter DOGE, departures, data agreements and more are creating havoc at the IRS.
-
Trump's Second 100 DaysThe Kiplinger Letter President Trump's agenda faces legal and legislative roadblocks.
-
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade War
The Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
-
Trump Dials Back Most Tariffs but Targets ChinaThe Kiplinger Letter Wall Street hopes that higher tariffs on most countries are on hold for good. But the trade war between the U.S. and China is heating up.
