Assessing the Risks of International Travel
Data on COVID cases and vaccination rates can help you determine if your international destination is safe.
Planning a trip overseas requires more research than usual as you will need to monitor varying rates of vaccination in different countries and possible COVID-19 outbreaks. Even within the European Union, which will gradually reopen to vaccinated American tourists, the timing and the rules for easing those restrictions will vary by country.
Eric Toner, a senior scientist in environmental health and engineering at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, recommends staying away from destinations where the COVID-19 positivity rates are above 5% of the population and where vaccination programs aren't robust.
The CDC offers a country-by-country COVID-19 risk assessment to help you make travel decisions. Visit cdc.gov, and under "Diseases and Conditions," click on "Coronavirus Disease 2019," choose "Travel," and scroll down to select "International Travel During COVID-19."
The potential for massive outbreaks of the disease like the one in India this past spring will decline as immunity grows through vaccinations and infections. Still, "it is not impossible since new variants could arise," says Toner, who recommends waiting as long as possible before booking a trip.