Stocks were volatile Friday as investors weighed an encouraging inflation report against news of a tense meeting in the Oval Office between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The three main indexes finished the session higher thanks to a late-day burst of buying power but were lower on the month.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.4% at 43,840, the S&P 500 had gained 1.6% to 5,954, and the Nasdaq Composite had added 1.6% to 18,847.
Boosting stocks early on was data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that said the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose 0.3% from December to January and was up 2.5% over the year prior. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 0.3% higher month over month and up 2.6% year over year.
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Both annual increases came in slower than what was seen in December and were in line with economists' estimates.
The report also showed that personal income rose at a faster-than-anticipated clip while personal spending fell for the first time in two years.
"Friday's PCE made progress in moving lower and toward the Fed's 2% target, albeit slow progress," says Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management. "While additional rate cuts are still probably many months away, we believe this report helps to keep one or two rate cuts on the table for 2025."
Ruggirello adds that inflation data is "volatile," but he believes the numbers "will continue to improve going forward."
Trump and Zelensky's contentious meeting weighs on stocks
The upbeat inflation data had the three main indexes comfortably in positive territory mid-morning, but reports of a contentious sit-down between Trump and Zelensky pushed them into the red by the afternoon.
Talks between the leaders ended abruptly, leaving a potential rare earth mineral deal and military support for Ukraine in limbo.
Recession worries rise, tariffs loom
Not helping matters was a downward revision to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator, a widely followed measure of expected economic growth. The model is now calling for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be -1.5% in the first quarter vs the prior outlook for +2.3%.
If this is the actual rate of real Q1 GDP, it would mark the first contraction since Q2 2022.
"This huge drop in the estimate reflects the very weak data that has been coming out on retail sales, net imports, inventories and new home sales," says Jay Hatfield, CEO and chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. "The old economy is now in a recession as ultra-tight Fed policy takes its toll on the housing market and commercial construction."
Investors are also keeping a close eye on tariff headlines after Trump said earlier this week that the U.S. will begin levying taxes on Canadian and Mexican imports this Tuesday, March 4.
Nvidia bounced back
Nvidia (NVDA) gained 4.0% after sinking 8.5% in Thursday's post-earnings session. Still, for the week, NVDA closed down 7.3%.
While the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker reported a fiscal fourth-quarter beat on Wednesday evening, investors are worried about slowing top-line growth and shrinking gross margins.
Dell stock drops after earnings
In single-stock news, Dell Technologies (DELL) fell 4.7% after the PC maker reported lower-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $2.68 per share.
Still, DELL's earnings of $2.68 per share beat analysts' estimates and the company said it's hiking its quarterly dividend by 18% and its stock buyback program by $10 billion.
Dell also noted that it sold roughly $10 billion in AI-optimized servers in fiscal 2025 and expects this number to rise to $15 billion in fiscal 2026.
Walgreens slapped with a new Sell rating
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) tumbled 4.9% after Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill downgraded the pharmacy chain to Sell from Hold.
Hill says the former Dow Jones component – which was replaced by Amazon.com (AMZN) on the 30-stock index just over a year ago – has run too far, too fast on takeover speculation.
Media reports of a potential buyout by private equity firm Sycamore Partners first started swirling in early December – and have sent shares up nearly 25%. But Hill says "the deal strikes us as incredibly complicated and unlikely to be consummated at a premium to the current share price."
And Walgreens' longer-term troubles remain, as evidenced by its late-January decision to suspend its dividend.
Most analysts are staying on the sidelines. Of the 18 analysts covering WBA tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, four have it at Buy or Strong Buy, 10 call it a Hold, and four say it's a Sell or Strong Sell. This works out to a consensus Hold recommendation.
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