Lingering optimism about tariffs lifted stocks at Friday's opening bell, but continuing questions about President Donald Trump's shifting policy limited upside heading into a critical weekend of trade war negotiations.
Representatives of the U.S. and China are heading to Geneva for their first face-to-face trade negotiations of the second Trump administration, and markets quickly digested the positive news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K.
"Trump flexed his negotiating style again by stating the 80% tariffs on China seem right," observes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "which has been seen as discouraging the likelihood of real progress."
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Navellier notes that "time is of the essence on the tariffs," explaining that shipments from Asia "are seen to fall precipitously this month, and if not resolved soon, appear likely to disrupt the early holiday period orders."
Navellier notes, however, that "the trend remains to the upside, with sustained net inflows by individual investors for a record 21 weeks in a row."
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) inched down to 22.07 on Friday from 22.48 on Thursday but has eased from as high as 24.32 last Friday. A "normal" reading for the "fear gauge" is between 12 and 20.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note ended the week at 4.386%, up from 4.373% on Thursday and 4.322% last Friday. And the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped 0.2% to 100.40. The DXY closed at 100.00 on May 2. It's down from a 52-week high of 110.18 on January 13.
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3% to 41,249, the S&P 500 had shed 0.1% to 5,659, and the Nasdaq Composite was flat at 17,928.
Price action
Tesla (TSLA) stock surged as much as 7.8% on Friday and closed up 4.7% to end a third straight week of positive performance. According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, "Optimism around the China tariff and trade tensions scaling down is a boost for Tesla."
Ives has also noted that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has reengaged with the Mag 7 stock.
"Looking back on the earnings call from last week," Wedbush told Fortune magazine, "we saw a dialed-in and ‘reading the room' Musk we have rarely seen in the past."
Coinbase Global (COIN) reported first-quarter earnings of $1.94 per share as revenue grew from $1.64 billion to $2.03 billion but missed a Wall Street estimate of $2.12 billion. First-quarter transaction revenue was down 19%.
COIN stock was down 3.5% on Friday.
Management of the cryptocurrency exchange also said second-quarter subscription and services revenue would be lower, noting that crypto prices "dropped alongside broader market declines driven by tariff policy and macroeconomic uncertainty."
Pinterest (PINS) reported first-quarter EPS 23 cents on revenue of $855 million vs a FactSet-compiled consensus forecast of 26 cents on $846.5 million. Global monthly active users grew by 10% to 570 million.
Management of the communications services stock guided to second-quarter revenue of $960 million to $980 million vs a Wall Street estimate of $966 million.
Earnings scorecard
According to John Butters of FactSet, as of Friday, 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported first-quarter earnings.
"Of these companies," Butters writes, "78% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate." That's above the five-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 75%. Butters notes that earnings have exceeded estimates by 8.5% – below the five-year average of 8.8% but above the 10-year average of 6.9%.
Butters cites Microsoft (MSFT) as a company that enjoyed a positive EPS surprise. On April 30, the large-cap stock reported EPS of $3.46 vs a consensus estimate of $3.22. From April 28 to May 2, Microsoft’s stock price rose by 11.3%.
Butters observes that the percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q2 is above average. "It should be noted that while EPS guidance for Q2 2025 has been more positive than average," he adds, "analysts made larger cuts than average to Q2 EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies during the first month of the quarter."
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