What to Expect From the September Jobs Report
The September jobs report will be released Friday morning. Here's what we expect the data to show.
“We believe that the unemployment rate is running basically consistent with full employment,” Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said during his press conference following the September Fed meeting. In addition to a jobless rate of 4.1%, Warsh cited favorable trends for job openings and weekly hours, as well as unemployment claims. "So the labor side of the Fed's congressional remit is in good shape."
Indeed, a blowout August jobs report underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amid a "geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty," as Warsh describes it.
The U.S. added 162,000 new jobs in August, far surpassing a consensus forecast of 58,000. And job growth for June (+11,000 to +31,000) and July (+44,000 to +21,000) was upwardly revised, resulting in a combined 55,000 more jobs than previously reported.
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So what does this mean for September? We'll find out on Friday morning when the monthly data is released. But David Payne, staff economist at The Kiplinger Letter, writes in the Kiplinger jobs outlook that "the new normal for jobs reports going forward is likely to be gains of fewer than 100,000, rather than additions in six digits."
ADP jobs report
Wall Street got a peek at how things are going in the labor market on Wednesday morning with the ADP National Employment Report, which showed private payrolls rose by 90,000 in September, up from 36,000 in August and above the 68,000 economists expected.
The industries seeing the largest increases in jobs were education, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality, while financial activities, professional and business services saw the biggest declines in positions.
When is the next jobs report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the next jobs report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Friday, October 2. Economists expect the U.S. to have added 93,000 new jobs in September and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%.
Ahead of the September jobs report, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street expect the data to show and what the results could mean for the Fed and investors going forward. You'll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.
What Wall Street expects from the September jobs report
"We expect nonfarm payroll growth to slow to 90K in September following August's stronger-than-expected gain. Recent labor market data continue to point to a labor market that is resilient. Hiring measures from regional Fed surveys and small business surveys remain higher than a year ago, initial jobless claims continue to hover near multi-decade lows, and job postings have started to perk up modestly. Overall, the data suggest labor demand remains sufficient to support decent job growth. We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady. Labor force participation showed tentative signs of stabilization in August after weakening through much of the year." - Wells Fargo economists
"We estimate that nonfarm payroll employment grew 50k in September, following gains in June (+31k), July (+21k) and August (+162k). With the recent trend of roughly flat government payrolls expected to persist, we also forecast a +50k reading for private payroll employment. Barring revisions, September's headline forecast would place the 3-month moving average for the three months ending in September at +78k per month, near the +81k/m pace in the three months ending in June." - Marc Giannoni, Chief U.S. Economist, Barclays
"Led by education & healthcare and leisure & hospitality, private-sector hiring accelerated in September for the first time since May, with payrolls rising by a stronger-than-expected 90,000. The report pointed to broad-based strength across the labor market, with all but three sectors adding jobs during the month. We still expect the BLS report on Friday to reflect 70,000 jobs added to the economy." - Eugenio J. Alemán, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Raymond James
"The report will provide one of the most important tests of the economy's underlying health and will likely play a significant role in shaping expectations for monetary policy in the months ahead. We will be watching not only headline job growth but also wage gains, labor force participation, and revisions to prior months’ reports for evidence of whether labor market strength remains consistent with sustainable economic growth and moderating inflation." - Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
"After a brief late spring and early summer pause, the job market recovery of 2026 resumed in September. I expect solid employment growth (high double digits or very low triple digits) and a small decline in the unemployment rate. It's not a perfect labor market, and despite positive developments, you can find some soft spots. Arguments of 'the labor market is weaker than you think' anchored around labor force participation are deeply flawed and should be disregarded. But there's a genuine mystery around ongoing disappointing wage growth. The best I can do is argue that I don't expect the mystery to persist: either the labor market will crack (unlikely in the near term), or private sector compensation growth (inclusive of non-wage benefits) will accelerate." - Guy Berger, Ph.D., Senior Advisor on Labor Markets at Access/Macro
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