What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (September 28-October 2)

There is no shortage of incoming data as the economic calendar turns to October this week. With interest rates on the rise, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and the September jobs report are on tap.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for August before the opening bell on Thursday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its report on the employment situation for September before the opening bell on Friday.

From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance

Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues

CLICK FOR FREE ISSUE

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.

Sign up

We'll also hear from both New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee twice, as well as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

Economic reports we're watching

Wednesday, September 30: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Core PCE: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) re-heated in August along with re-escalating war in the Middle East and rising energy prices at home. Is it unreasonable to expect a similar trajectory for PCE?

Friday, October 2: Nonfarm payrolls report: A blowout August jobs report signaled the Fed's first rate hike in three years less than two weeks later. High-frequency data suggest the employment situation remains stable.

Read on to see the entire weekly economic calendar of the most important upcoming economic reports scheduled to be released in the next several days. At times, we provide expanded previews and recaps for select reports.

Please check back often. This economic calendar is updated regularly. Bolded reports are those considered more noteworthy. All reporting times are in Eastern Time.

Looking for more timely stock market news to help gauge the health of your portfolio? Sign up for Closing Bell, our free newsletter that's delivered straight to your inbox at the close of each trading day.

Monday (9/28)

Tuesday (9/29)

Wednesday (9/30)

All about price stability

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has added a 25-basis-point increase to the target range for the federal funds rate to match his verbal commitment to getting us back to price stability, or at least the central bank's 2% inflation target.

As of September 24, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Inflation Nowcasting tool shows August PCE printing at 3.78% on a year-over-year basis and 0.34% month over month.

Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices from the equation is pacing to 3.40% and 0.27%.

Perhaps more significantly, the snapshot shows September PCE tracking to 3.97% and 0.44% YoY at the headline level and 3.49% and 0.28% at the core level.

Strong employment data, as well as other signs of economic health, in the midst of a continuing energy shock made a rate hike at the September Fed meeting a foregone conclusion.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in two more rate hikes this year, at the October 27-28 Fed meeting and again in December.

Thursday (10/1)

Friday (10/2)

The other side of the Fed's dual mandate

"We estimate that nonfarm payroll employment grew 50,000 in September, following gains in June (+31,000), July (+21,000) and August (+162,000)," Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni forecast.

Absent revisions, that makes for a three-month moving average of 78,000 new jobs per month, just below the 81,000 average for the three months through June, according to Giannoni's calculations.

As this economist sees it, the Federal Open Market Committee might have room yet to hold in October based on the totality of the circumstances.

"We expect the FOMC to remain mindful of inconsistencies between the payroll and household surveys," Giannoni writes, "where we expect another flat reading for the unemployment rate (at 4.1%) amid low labor supply growth."

The economist says this combination "would keep an FOMC hold in play for the October meeting, as it continues to assess data developments," but he also expects another 25-basis-point rate hike in December.

Reporting schedules are provided Forex Factory and MarketWatch.

Related content

• Kiplinger's Earnings Calendar
• Kiplinger's Economic Forecasts
• Stock Market Holidays in 2026
• Stock Market Trading Hours