What to Expect From the May Jobs Report
The May jobs report will be released Friday morning. Here's what we expect the data to show.
The May jobs report will be released Friday morning, giving the Federal Reserve the latest update on the labor market ahead of its upcoming policy meeting slated for June 16-17.
The labor market, while slowing, is showing signs of resilience, with the U.S. adding 304,000 new jobs so far in 2026, or 76,000 per month on average.
"The robust March and April job reports should dispel concerns at the Federal Reserve that the economy might be weakening," writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger jobs outlook. "That means that interest rate cuts should remain off the table, but the labor market is not hot, meaning no real case for rate increases, either."
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The Federal Reserve's next meeting is less than two weeks away, with its latest policy decision due out at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, June 17.
According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are widely expecting new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep interest rates unchanged this time around.
ADP jobs report comes in higher than expected
Wall Street got a glimpse of how things are going in the labor market on Wednesday morning with ADP's National Employment Report, which showed private payrolls rose by 122,000 in May — more than economists expected and more than the 101,000 jobs added in April.
"Hiring was more broad-based in May than we've seen in the last few years," says Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season."
Growth was seen across businesses of all sizes, though companies with 49 employees or less added the most positions (+67,000). As for industries, education and health services (+57,000) saw the largest increase in jobs last month, while trade, transportation, and utilities (+36,000) and professional and business services (+11,000) also experienced strong gains.
When is the next jobs report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the next jobs report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Friday, June 5. Economists expect the U.S. to have added 80,000 new jobs in May and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.
Ahead of the May jobs report, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street expect the data to show and what the results could mean for the Fed and investors going forward. You'll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.
What to expect from the May jobs report
"Job growth has picked up from 2025 and is running at a moderate pace. The tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy, the AI boom, and the unwind of last year's policy uncertainty (Tariffs, DOGE) are outweighing headwinds from the Iran War. While we forecast for the unemployment rate to hold steady in last month's report, faster job growth is about to collide with a sharp slowdown of labor force entrants, caused by immigration restrictions and an aging workforce. If job growth holds at its recent pace, the unemployment rate will head lower in months ahead." - Bill Adams, Chief U.S. Economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank
"The May employment report is likely to point to a continued fragile balance in the labor market. We expect payrolls to post a third consecutive month of gains in May, for the first time in a year. The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.3%, pointing to labor market stability for the Fed. This will keep the Fed's focus squarely on inflation heading into the June FOMC meeting given the continued inflationary impact from the war in Iran." - Sophia Kearney-Lederman, Senior Economist at FHN Financial
"Ahead of the jobs report, markets are mirroring the Fed's wait-and-see stance, with positioning tightly focused on the labor print. Investors are balancing near-term data dependence with uncertainty around how a Warsh-led Fed might react — leaving markets reluctant to take strong views and highly sensitive to the outcome." - Shari Hensrud, Chief Investment Officer at MissionSquare
"After job growth surged in March and April, we look for May nonfarm payrolls to print at a solid, above-consensus 95k (private: 100k), which would be comfortably above breakeven. Education & health should continue to lead, followed by trade & transport and leisure & hospitality. Risks are tilted to the upside, with claims still benign, strong weekly ADP data and early World Cup hiring. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%. In our view, this points to a labor market that is solid enough for the Fed to stay on hold, but not hot enough to hike." - Shruti Mishra, U.S. Economist at BofA Securities
"The labor market remains one of the most important pieces of the Fed puzzle, and Friday's May employment report could go a long way toward shaping expectations heading into the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. As for the jobs data, a stronger-than-expected report could reinforce the 'higher for longer' narrative and push rate-cut expectations further into the second half of the year at the earliest. A weaker print where unemployment drifts toward 4.5% would strengthen the case that restrictive monetary policy is beginning to bite. In a market searching for clarity on the timing of the next Fed move, Friday's jobs report may prove to be the most influential data point of the month." - Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets
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