When Will U.S. Public Schools Re-Open? A Sobering Forecast From The Kiplinger Letter
School closings already have delivered a costly hit to lifetime earnings for today's kids as a slow ramp-up of in-person learning in the nation's K-12 public schools begins.
On the whole, K-12 public schools won’t be back to normal this school year. The reopening status of schools varies greatly and the data are hard to track. According to Burbio, a local data service firm, most students in Wyoming, Montana and Florida attend schools that offer daily in-person learning. In stark contrast, many counties in California, Washington, Maryland and New Mexico offer only a virtual option. Other areas are in between.
Two-thirds of public schools have at least some in-person classes. 41% of students attend a school that offers in-person, everyday classes, while 26% are in a hybrid setting. About one-third of public schools remain in virtual settings, down from a high of about 62% around Labor Day, as the 2020-21 school year started.
But bear in mind, many parents are opting to keep their kids at home even if the school offers daily in-person learning. Take Miami-Dade, Fla., for example, a district with 350,000 students open to daily in-person classes: 52% of parents choose the remote option. About half of parents in a recent poll say their child is attending school only online. 42% say they’d choose online for the rest of the year.
The steady shift to more in-person learning will continue as infections ease.
Many large districts mostly closed for months are starting reopening plans, including Chicago, New York City, Boston and Virginia's Loudoun County. Agreements have been struck with teachers’ unions, but the ramp-up could be slow in some areas.
Evidence continues to grow that in-person schooling can be done safely with mitigation efforts in place, such as universal masking, student pods and testing. Many private and public schools have provided safe in-person learning for months.
The Biden administration’s COVID guidance will help more schools open. It gives schools a safety framework with ample specifics, something teachers’ unions were calling for. That should grease the skids a bit to restart some stalled efforts.
But the guidance doesn’t pave the way to normal schooling. For example, one recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s strategy calls for six feet of physical distancing to the “greatest extent possible.” Adhering to that strictly would mean 50% capacity at many schools, due to space constraints.
Critics say the guidelines are overly restrictive and are urging fast updates to relax and tweak many details, such as how the CDC says to use infection data.
The negative health outcomes of not having in-person school are piling up, such as damage to social and emotional development, and mental health issues.
America’s K-12 students face a dire level of lost learning in coming years, caused by worse learning outcomes for most students in prolonged virtual settings. Issues range from young kids not learning to read to falling a year behind in math.
Affected kids could take a serious economic hit, according to an estimate from consulting firm McKinsey. A student not returning to full classes by January 2021 could lose $60,000 to $80,000 in lifetime earnings. Some have now been out longer. The damage is much worse for black and Hispanic students versus white students.
The problem will be at the forefront of education policy debates for years.