The now-notorious elementary science fair-like posterboard that was marched out to the White House Rose Garden on “Liberation Day” prompted a deep and fast stock market decline that did not stop until a 90-day pause was announced for the same reciprocal tariffs that were listed on the board.
Why did the market fall so steeply?
The stock market is the present value of future expectations. Positive and negative surprises are what cause large movements.
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These tariffs were a negative surprise. The average tariff rate was about 2% on imports going into April. The market was expecting around 10%.
This news brought the average to about 20%, and if the rates had gone into effect as stated on April 2, they would have brought in $620 billion annually, which is more than we collect on all corporate income taxes.
Markets see tariffs as a tax
Regardless of how you feel about the tariffs, the market views them as a tax. If the corporation eats the cost and sees its margins compress, this shows up the same way as an increase in corporate tax rates, and the stock price falls.
If higher costs are passed along to the consumer, this shows up the same way as an increase in sales tax, possibly slowing demand and the economy as a whole.
For President Donald Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and trade adviser Peter Navarro, tariffs equal good. For markets, tariffs equal bad.
Fortunately, the market has now gained back all of those losses since April 2 because of tariff suspensions, but we are not quite out of the woods yet. Below are some key upcoming dates and why they matter.
July 9
The 90-day pause on higher "reciprocal" tariff rates for most countries (excluding China) expires, meaning these higher rates could be reimposed.
Remember in April, the U.S. and China had been going tit-for-tat raising import rates to unsustainable levels? On April 9, the U.S. suspended most of the “reciprocal tariffs” for 90 days, but excluded China from this suspension.
Theoretically, these countries are in negotiations with the U.S. right now, but that’s a lot of deals to get done in under a month.
July 14
I hit you. You hit me. The EU hit us with retaliatory tariffs after Liberation Day. In response to our April 9 suspension, they suspended their tariffs on our goods. That suspension will expire on July 14.
I’m hopeful that neither of these tariffs comes to fruition. In addition to the market fallout, Europeans will be drinking scotch instead of bourbon. We’ll be drinking cabernet instead of Bordeaux. I guess that part could be worse …
July 29
The same thing could have been said for the G7, so it’s understandable to be skeptical about the G20 meetings at the end of July yielding significant progress.
However, that’s exactly what happened in 2018 and 2019 when the U.S. announced trade truces with China during G20 events.
July 31
On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade (yes, this is a real thing) ruled that the president exceeded his statutory authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing peacetime tariffs not tied to a specific national emergency.
A federal appellate court then issued a stay freezing the lower court’s ruling.
In English, the tariffs are still in effect (well, except for the suspension part) until oral arguments are heard on July 31.
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If the administration loses this battle, they’ll escalate via an appeal to the Supreme Court. Long story short, this could go long.
Even if they lose in the Supreme Court, they would likely find other ways to impose tariffs, but they would have to involve Congress.
Businesses hate uncertainty. It causes hiring freezes or, worse, layoffs. It pauses investment. And those things are bad for markets.
August 10
The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are perhaps the most complicated. They extend beyond the need for us to source cheap electronics and strollers into national security considerations.
China needs our AI chips. We need rare earths for a lot of things, including for creating those AI chips. Essentially, we need each other, but neither of us wants to give, or be perceived as giving, the other the upper hand.
We are in a 90-day trade truce that expires on August 10. Negotiations are ongoing and could be wrapped up any day now.
I know all of these things bring about uncertainty, which can make investing, or having faith in your investments, difficult. Probably the worst thing you can do is let your feelings on tariffs, the administration or Bordeaux impact your strategy.
The market is basically pricing in a best-case scenario for tariffs. I hope the market is right.
But one of the reasons we favor the dynamic asset allocation we use is that it’s black and white. If markets go down by X, we reduce exposure by Y. If they go up by X, we increase exposure by Y.
Trust in your financial plan.
If you do not have a financial plan, you can use the free version of the software we use.
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