Tesla Stock Slumps on Demand Concerns
Is more trouble ahead for Tesla stock? Wall Street is split on the matter.
- (opens in new tab)
- (opens in new tab)
- (opens in new tab)
- Newsletter sign up Newsletter

Tesla (TSLA (opens in new tab)) stock sold off once again on Wednesday, this time over concerns about weaker demand for its electric vehicles not only in the critically important market of China but also in the U.S.
The latest warning comes courtesy of Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi and follows reports earlier this week that Tesla is cutting production of its Model Y midsize SUV (opens in new tab) at its Shanghai factory by 20% in December.
Tesla denied the reports, but Sacconaghi – and to some extent, the market – sees trouble ahead.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
"Tesla increasingly appears to have a demand problem," writes Sacconaghi, who rates Tesla stock at Underperform (the equivalent of Sell). "The company has responded by cutting prices in China and the U.S. (for December deliveries), and purportedly reducing production in China."
The analyst attributes Tesla's demand problems to a number of issues, including increasing competition from other manufacturers of electric vehicles, a weakening global economy, and "Tesla's narrow (and expensive) product family, which is reaching saturation."
Sacconaghi estimates that price cuts in the U.S. and China will cause Tesla's average selling price to fall by roughly 2.6% or $1,400 per car. That, in turn, will depress the gross margin in Tesla's auto business by an estimated 200 basis points, or 0.2%.
More importantly, the analyst says that Tesla might have to reduce prices repeatedly in the not-too-distant future.
"Given weakness in China, we believe that Tesla will need to make the October 24 price cuts permanent and make further incremental price cuts in order to stimulate demand," Sacconaghi adds.
Tesla stock has lost half its value in 2022, but Wall Street leans collectively toward bullishness on the name. Of the 35 analysts covering TSLA stock tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 13 call it a Strong Buy, eight rate it at Buy, 11 have it at Hold and three call it a Sell.
Their average target price of $279.83 gives Tesla stock an implied upside of about 62% in the next 12 months or so.
As for Tesla's valuation, some market observers – notably Scott Galloway, clinical professor of marketing at the New York University Stern School of Business – argue that TSLA stock is almost uniquely overpriced.
Basic metrics, however, are more forgiving. For example, Tesla stock trades at 31.4 times analysts' 2023 earnings per share (EPS) estimate, per S&P Global Market Intelligence. That's by no means cheap – but one could argue that it's not an unreasonable premium to pay for a company that's forecast to generate average annual EPS growth of almost 29% over the next three to five years.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk's controversial takeover of Twitter (opens in new tab) also factors into Tesla stock's valuation. On a fundamental level, Musk's sale of some of his Tesla stock in order to help fund his purchase of the social media site added to downward price pressure on TSLA. Musk's antics and controversial statements as Twitter's owner also have at least indirect effects on both Tesla stock and public perceptions of the brand.
Such factors don't fit neatly into analysts' spreadsheets, but they are indeed real. CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson, for one, acknowledges the distractions caused by Tesla's mercurial CEO.
"TSLA's share price performance has been hurt by the incessant noise surrounding Twitter since Elon Musk completed his acquisition in late October, but we believe concerns regarding additional stock sales by Musk are overblown," writes Nelson, who rates Tesla stock at Strong Buy.
The analyst adds that he's bullish on demand for the forthcoming Tesla Semi (opens in new tab), a fully electric semi-truck, and forecasts EPS growth of 40% in 2023.
"We also see an increased likelihood of a stock buyback announcement in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion following TSLA's selloff," Nelson says.
Related articles
Dan Burrows is Kiplinger's senior investing writer, having joined the august publication full time in 2016.
A long-time financial journalist, Dan is a veteran of SmartMoney, MarketWatch, CBS MoneyWatch, InvestorPlace and DailyFinance. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Consumer Reports, Senior Executive and Boston magazine, and his stories have appeared in the New York Daily News, the San Jose Mercury News and Investor's Business Daily, among other publications. As a senior writer at AOL's DailyFinance, Dan reported market news from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and hosted a weekly video segment on equities.
Once upon a time – before his days as a financial reporter and assistant financial editor at legendary fashion trade paper Women's Wear Daily – Dan worked for Spy magazine, scribbled away at Time Inc. and contributed to Maxim magazine back when lad mags were a thing. He's also written for Esquire magazine's Dubious Achievements Awards.
In his current role at Kiplinger, Dan writes about equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, funds, macroeconomics and more.
Dan holds a bachelor's degree from Oberlin College and a master's degree from Columbia University.
Disclosure: Dan does not trade stocks or other securities. Rather, he dollar-cost averages into cheap funds and index funds and holds them forever in tax-advantaged accounts.
-
-
Gaining More Certainty in Your Retirement Income Plan
Relying on market performance to close the gap in your retirement income could let you down, but a CD ladder and fixed annuities could provide some certainty.
By Cole Czajkoski, Investment Adviser Representative • Published
-
Considering a 1031 Exchange? The Rules You Need to Know
Taxes are an inevitable part of investing in real estate. You can, however, defer or avoid paying capital gains taxes by following some simple rules of a 1031 exchange. Yes, you read that correctly!
By Daniel Goodwin • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Climb After Spotify Job Cuts
Spotify became the latest company to announce layoffs, while Salesforce climbed on activist investor news.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Netflix, Alphabet Lead Rally in Tech Stocks
Netflix reported much higher-than-expected subscriber growth, while Wall Street cheered Alphabet's layoff announcement.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Pops as Tesla, Coinbase Stocks Soar
Bed Bath & Beyond was another big winner on Monday, despite last week's bankruptcy warning.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Bounce Back After Latest Jobs Data
Today's weekly jobless claims update gave investors hope that the labor market might finally be cooling.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Lose Steam After Dismal Housing Data
Markets hinted at the potential start of a Santa Claus rally at the open before quickly turning lower.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Tesla Keeps S&P 500, Nasdaq in the Red
Tesla suspended production at its Shanghai factory earlier than anticipated amid reports of spiking COVID cases among workers.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Extends Losing Streak
The broad market index has now closed lower for five straight sessions.
By Karee Venema • Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Spiral After Strong Data Sparks Fed Fears
Data on the services sector and factory activity came in stronger than expected, pointing to a resilient U.S. economy.
By Karee Venema • Published