Joey Solitro
Stocks closed higher on Tuesday, even as a single biotech slid as much as 12% and dragged on the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yields were up too after President-elect Donald Trump said he'll impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on day one of his new administration.
"On Friday, the President-elect used his Truth Social platform to announce hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary, cheering markets with a relatively conventional pick to steer the world's No. 1 economy," writes Bloomberg's Alan Crawford.
"But any vague hopes that Trump was going mainstream were short-lived," Crawford continues. "He sent investors into a flap with another post yesterday pledging to hit Mexico and Canada with tariffs of 25% on 'ALL products' entering the US, plus levies of 10% on China."
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Investors seemed to shrug off the president-elect's after-hours post, reverting to the cautious optimism generated by the Bessent nomination. In an October interview with Matt Peterson of Barron's, Bessent expressed his belief that Trump "won't do anything to take the economy off the cliff."
Noting that Alexander Hamilton, America's first Treasury secretary, "also happened to be America's original proponent of tariffs," Bessent in a November 15 Fox News op-ed suggests Trump will deploy them "as a negotiating tool with our trading partners."
As Peterson frames it in a follow-up filed today, "The new tariffs plan raises this question: How far Trump can push his attempts at an international economic reordering without upsetting the markets?"
Following Monday's sharp declines as investors priced in their initial reaction to the Bessent nomination, yields on both the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and the 2-year U.S. Treasury bill rose again early on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year was up 3 basis points to 4.30% as of 4 pm Eastern time, while the 2-year yield gave back most of the 5 basis points it added intraday and closed flat at 4.25%.
The S&P 500 was up 0.6% at 6,021 – its second-ever close above the 6K level. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% to 19,174. And the Dow rallied off its intraday low and closed higher by 0.3% at 44,860.
Amgen weighs on the Dow
Amgen (AMGN) traded down as much as 12.3% Tuesday after the company reported Phase 2 trial data for its weight-loss drug that came up short of Wall Street expectations for its efficacy. The biotech stock closed down 4.8% at $280.01, dragging on the Dow.
The drugmaker said non-diabetic overweight or obese patients lost an average of 20% of their body weight after a year on its MariTide therapy, with no plateau. Those results are in line with data for Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound, but they're also at the low end of Wall Street expectations.
Mizuho Securities America healthcare strategist Jared Holz told CNBC that "investors remain even more confident" that LLY and Novo Nordisk (NVO) will lead the weight loss drug market. Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug is called Wegovy.
William Blair analyst Matt Phipps said AMGN still offers "a differentiated product profile versus currently approved GLP-1 therapies" and that MariTide has "potential for meaningful market share."
Amgen said it will test MariTide in a Phase 3 clinical trial.
Stocks on the move
Kohl's (KSS) stock plunged 17% after the retailer came up short of top- and bottom-line expectations for its third quarter and slashed its full-year outlook due to softness in its apparel and footwear businesses.
"We are not satisfied with our performance in 2024 and are taking aggressive action to reverse the sales declines," said CEO Tom Kingsbury in what is his last statement on the retailer's quarterly results as its chief executive.
On Monday, Kohl's announced that Kingsbury will step down on January 15, 2025. Ashley Buchanan, the former CEO of Michael's, will become Kohl's third CEO since 2018.
Best Buy (BBY) stock fell 4.9% after the electronics retailer missed top- and bottom-line expectations for its fiscal third quarter. Management also trimmed Best Buy's full-year outlook.
Citing "a combination of the ongoing macro uncertainty, customers waiting for deals and sales events, and distraction during the run-up to the election," CEO Corie Barry said Best Buy "delivered an in-line non-GAAP operating income rate" even though sales "were a little softer than expected."
The consumer discretionary stock has enjoyed a solid 2024, rising more than 20% even accounting for Tuesday's decline. But Best Buy is among the companies most exposed to potential new tariffs on imported products.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock rose as much as 5.7% after the electric vehicle (EV) maker announced it had secured a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $6.6 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy. RIVN closed lower by 0.4%.
Proceeds from the loan, should it close, will fund construction of a new EV plant in Georgia and will allow Rivian "to more aggressively scale our U.S. manufacturing footprint for our competitively priced R2 and R3 vehicles that emphasize both capability and affordability," said CEO RJ Scaringe.
"Although we still remain confident in the long-term Rivian vision," wrote Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a November 8 note, "it will take some serious strides for the company to regain trust in the short-term vision in the eyes of the Street."
Incoming economic data
The backward-looking minutes from the November FOMC meeting show monetary policymakers continue to focus on incoming data and to prioritize the health of the labor market amid signs of progress in their fight against inflation.
"In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment," the November FOMC minutes read, "it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time."
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in December is now 59.6%, down from 74.6% on October 25.
As for fresh economic data, home price growth in the 20 largest U.S. cities slowed to 4.6% in September from the year-ago period. That's down from a 5.2% increase in the prior month, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
"Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024," notes Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real estate and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant notes that the home-price index usually "has shown an increase in home price growth between August and September. This year, the September data could be indicative of a slowdown in home price appreciation in the months ahead."
New home sales declined 17.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 in October from the prior month, according to the Census Bureau.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 111.7 in November, an increase of 2.1 points from its 109.6 reading in October.
"November's increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market," said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Wednesday's economic calendar is packed. Fresh data on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, the U.S. trade balance, retail and wholesale inventories, and GDP will be released at 8:30 am Eastern time.
Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for October will follow at 10 am. The PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Based on data compiled by FactSet, analysts expect the PCE to show a 0.20% month-over-month increase in October vs 0.18% in September. The forecast for the year-over-year rate is 2.3% vs 2.1% in September.
The consensus sees core PCE rising 0.29% in October vs 0.25% in September. Year-over-year core PCE is forecast at 2.8% vs 2.7%.
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