Stock Market Today: It's Going to Stay Choppy for Stocks

Stocks sagged at the open, perked up within the first 30 minutes of Thursday's trading session and were in the green by the end of the first hour. It was up and down from there. And markets will likely remain choppy until the Trump administration steadies into a consistent economic policy.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.4% to 42,299, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 5,693, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 0.5% to 17,804.

More questions about tariffs and trade wars showed up in price action across sectors and industries again on Thursday. It's been most acute for one group.

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As The Wall Street Journal reports, "President Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported to the U.S., acting on a promise that could further pressure car and truck prices that have been rising for years."

Tariffs will take effect on April 3, the day after what the president has labeled "Liberation Day."

"FOR YEARS WE HAVE BEEN RIPPED OFF BY VIRTUALLY EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD," President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social. "BUT THOSE DAYS ARE OVER."

Tesla (TSLA) was among the day's winners, rising 0.4% a day after its five-session winning streak ended with a 5.6% skid.

The Trump administration's tariff ideas aren't expected to impact the fortunes of Elon Musk's electric vehicle company as much as they will other domestic automobile manufacturers.

As Barron's notes, General Motors (GM) assembles about 55% of the cars it sells in the U.S. inside the country's borders, the same as Stellantis (STLA), while the figure for Ford Motor (F) is about 80%.

GM plunged 7.3%, STLA closed down 1.2%, and Ford Moter fell 3.4%.

It's hard to see recession

It's on a lot of people's minds – investors, traders and speculators as well as decision-makers at the corporate and consumer levels. And the answer to what is a recession? depends on your perspective.

But the incoming data suggest all's clear, for now.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said its third estimate showed gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4% during the fourth quarter of 2024.

That's up from a second estimate of 2.3%. The consensus expected to see another 2.3% print.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22 declined by 1,000 to 224,000. Claims for the March 15 period were revised up by 2,000 to 223,000.

The four-week moving average declined by 4,750 to 224,000. And the previous average was revised up by 1,750 from 227,000 to 228,750.

"Hard to see recession in these data," observes Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox. Cox says "the real test" will be "when the trade shocks feed into the numbers" in the first quarter. "That may not look so rosy."

As for initial claims: "Nothing to see here … the labor market is far stronger and resilient than folks appreciate."

According to Chris Larkin of E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, "For markets, the question is whether anything will be able to rise above the noise of the tariff story. In the near term, the most likely scenario is more choppy trading."

WGO > TSLA

Winnebago Industries (WGO) rallied 8.1% on Thursday, with the RV stock topping EV stock Tesla by more than 20-to-1 for the session.

WGO posted earnings of 19 cents per share, down by 80% year over year from 93 cents but ahead of the 16 cents per share analysts expected. Revenue fell by 12% and gross margin was tighter by 160 basis points, but both reported numbers were ahead of estimates.

CFRA Research Senior Analyst Garrett Nelson said Winnebago's beat "was driven by slightly better-than-expected sales and margins." WGO's longer-term prospects are tied to the health of the American consumer.

Management cut its fiscal year 2025 earnings-per-share guidance to $2.75 to $3.75 from $3.10 to $4.40, though the new midpoint is better than a consensus forecast of $3.19.

"One notable positive was that the company is starting to benefit from easier comparables," Nelson explained, citing a 7% YoY rise in Towable RV unit sales and a 21% boost for Boats. "Motorhome deliveries remain very weak (-37%)."

Nelson reiterated his Hold rating on WGO but reduced his 12-month target price from $50 to $35 due to "concerns related to consumer discretionary spending."

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