Nasdaq Rises Amid Middle East Uncertainty: Stock Market Today
Governments and global organizations are responding to the threat of a potential energy crisis stemming from the war in the Persian Gulf.
The International Energy Agency said it would release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves, but markets remain concerned about pressures on supplies for what remains one of the world's most important economic inputs.
"The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size," International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Oil markets are global so the response to major disruptions needs to be global too."
As the IEA notes, its planned release is the sixth since its founding in 1974, with similar moves in 1991, 2005 and 2011, and two in 2022 amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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According to Bloomberg, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France and the U.K. will also release barrels of oil to help alleviate supply shortages as the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continues to constrict Persian Gulf shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The front-month crude oil futures contract traded up to $88.99 per barrel from $83.45 on Tuesday, and closed 4.6% higher at $87.25. Energy led to the upside on Wednesday, with Chevron (CVX) rising 3% to pace the 30 Dow Jones stocks.
"Despite the prospect of releasing oil reserves, continued uncertainty translates into continued upside risk for oil prices," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner observes, "and that translates into a Fed that will remain cautious about cutting interest rates."
Tech stocks were higher for most of the trading session, too, as Nvidia (NVDA, +0.7%) held a solid gain. Financial stocks continue to struggle with questions about potential contagions in private markets.
At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by 0.08% at 22,716. But the broad-based S&P 500 was lower by 0.08% at 6,775, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 0.6% to 47,417.
Incoming inflation data
A tame February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report "would probably be a welcome data point on any other day," Zentner writes, "but against the current backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and surging oil prices, it may not carry as much weight in the markets – or with the Fed."
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said headline CPI increased 0.3% in February vs 0.2% in January. CPI increased by 2.4% year over year again. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year, both figures in line with January data.
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Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are more concerned about "full employment" in the aftermath of a weak February jobs report. Others are focused on inflation as oil prices spike. And just about everybody is worried about stagflation.
Meanwhile, CME Group FedWatch reflects a 99.4% probability that the target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50% to 3.75% at the conclusion of the next Fed meeting.
ORCL is up on the cloud
Oracle (ORCL, +9.2%) posted the biggest gain among S&P 500 stocks and added about $40 billion to its market cap after management reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 third-quarter results.
Total revenue was up 22% to $17.2 billion, driven by 44% growth for Oracle's cloud segment to $8.9 billion. The cloud infrastructure unit grew by 84%, while cloud software sales were up 13%. Software, hardware and services sales were up a combined 4%.
"ORCL remains a rare software name showing business acceleration, robust cloud infrastructure growth, and durable 20%+ top- and bottom-line growth," Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz writes.
The analyst reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for ORCL to $210 from $180, noting that "Oracle's business should be more resilient" compared to other software stocks.
BNTX bounces back big
BioNTech (BNTX, +8.3%) fell 17.9% on Tuesday during its worst trading day since March 2020 after the health care stock reported fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that fell short of expectations.
BioNTech also announced that its co-founders, CEO Ugur Sahin and Chief Medical Officer Ozlem Tureci, are departing the company they founded in 2008 for a new startup venture focused on messenger RNA, the technology the married couple used to develop their COVID-19 vaccine.
According to Truist analyst Asthika Goonewardene, who reiterated his Buy rating and his 12-month target price of $155 for BNTX, the startup "will focus on next-generation mRNA innovation, likely centered on the earlier-stage AI-enabled platform technologies BNTX discussed at its October 2025 AI Day."
At the same time, the analyst sees the move "as a positive for BNTX, as it could reduce spending on very early-stage platform and product work while allowing BNTX to remain focused on late-stage clinical development and commercial execution."
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