Tesla (TSLA) stock is down more than 30% so far in 2024, but Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood thinks "now is not the time to run for the hills." In fact, Ark has been buying the stock and thinks it could rise to $2,000 per share in the next five years, representing an increase of more than 1,000% from today's levels.
"Autos, in the future, will be electric," Wood said in a recent interview with CNBC. "We believe in five years, 75% to 85% of all sales will be electric."
And Tesla is not just an auto company, Wood told CNBC. It epitomizes three technologies – robotics, energy storage and artificial intelligence.
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When CNBC asked what Tesla would be worth in five years, Wood confidently said $2,000 per share.
The $2,000 per share figure is not new, either. In April 2023, Ark Invest published its valuation model for Tesla with the same price target and the expectation of reaching it by 2027. It also revealed a "bull case" target of $2,500 per share, which had a 25% probability, and a "bear case" target of $1,400 per share, also with a 25% probability.
Robotaxis are key to Tesla stock's growth
The key driver of Ark's investment thesis is Tesla's prospective robotaxi business, which it thinks could represent 44% of the $1.02 trillion in revenue, 64% of the $354 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) and 67% of the $6.1 trillion enterprise value it expects Tesla to reach in 2027.
Ark's price targets rely heavily on the anticipated launch of the robotaxi business, "with late 2024 as the weighted average of all cases," it said.
"With a robotaxi platform, Tesla should be able to generate earnings from both the vehicle sale and a recurring ride-hail revenue stream, which ARK believes could generate software-like margins," Ark said in its valuation model. "As Elon Musk has phrased it, autonomous ride-hail ‘probably will be the biggest asset value increase in history.'"
If the robotaxi business does not launch in the near term, Ark may have to revise its target date for reaching the $2,000 per share price target.
As a point of comparison, the average target price of the 47 analysts covering Tesla stock that are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence is $196.64.
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