Ray Dalio Is Ringing Alarm Bells About 'Something Worse Than a Recession'
The Bridgewater founder has been calling for people to look beyond the immediate panic of tariffs.


Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has been sounding off about his concerns for the global economy and global future in general, ringing alarm bells that danger's afoot. He has been saying not only are we at risk of a recession, but of more disruption as a result of certain economic policies and other factors.
His comments come both online — he posted an essay to X, formerly known as Twitter, last week — and on television, as he spoke to NBC News' Meet the Press on Sunday. The 75-year-old has called on his listeners to look beyond the immediate shock of President Donald Trump's tariff announcements and see underlying factors that indicate instability.
"The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders," Dalio wrote in his post on X. "This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place."
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Dalio's predictions for the future and analysis of the present
Specifically, Dalio wrote, unsustainable conditions are a breaking down of...
- ...the "monetary/economic order" as a result of "too much existing debt" (i.e. the U.S. borrowing from China)
- ...political order due to rising inequities in opportunity and education
- ...geopolitical world order as the U.S. shifts to an "America-first" mentality
...as well as disruptive acts of nature, like floods and pandemics, and disruptive technology like AI.
Rather than looking at tariffs or Trump's election in a vacuum, he argues, it's part of a larger overall cycle in power and order (he explains the cycle concept further in his 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order).
David Payne, staff economist for The Kiplinger Letter, has a more measured take in response to Dalio: "Yes, these are concerns. Yes, Trump is accelerating some of these issues. But doomsday predictions tend to undervalue strengths, such as the productiveness of the capitalist system and the U.S. economy."
Following up on his writing, Dalio said on Meet the Press he is "worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well." The billionaire, who said during the 2024 election the country needed a more moderate leader than either candidate, said the U.S. should cut the federal deficit to 3% of gross domestic product, or otherwise "we're going to have a supply-demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems, and the results of that will be worse than a normal recession."
Particularly last week as the stock market reacted to Trump's tariff announcement, experts said a recession is increasingly likely in the face of economic and market disruptions caused by Trump's trade stances.
"Worse than a recession" to Dalio could mean a devaluation of money, internal conflict threatening democracy, and international conflict that could turn violent. He referred to our current situation and its combination of factors, which he called "a decision-making point," as "very much like the 1930s."
Dalio's past thoughts on politics and Trump
These are not particularly new comments for the hedge fund powerhouse. During the 2024 presidential election, Dalio also expressed concerns for the future of the U.S.
While he refused to endorse either candidate, calling it in a Time essay a "choice between a strong, unethical, almost fascist Republican Party and a frail, untruthful, and enigmatic Democratic Party," he did say he was worried democracy would be at risk if Trump were to lose but reject the results.
Speaking more broadly, he told BBC last September: "This reminds me of the 1930 to 45 period in which there was an economic crisis followed by democracies becoming dictatorships. Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan had parliamentary systems, and they broke down in terms of internal conflict between the the hard left, the hard right, communism and fascism. We are today seeing modern day versions of some of these things."
Payne, the Kiplinger Letter staff economist, also sees echoes of the past, but with more optimism than Dalio.
"Adjustments will be made, and perhaps some GDP growth points foregone, but we've muddled through crises before," Payne said. He pointed to the tumult of the 1960s-70s between war, Nixon's resignation, gas prices and social change.
"The stock market was moribund for a long time," Payne continued. "But the turbulence subsided in the '80s, and technological progress continued, setting the stage for the growth surge of the '90s. Of course, some of that growth surge was the result of globalization, which has begun to reverse, but there is a still a lot of promising tech out there."
Related Content
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

Alexandra Svokos is the digital managing editor of Kiplinger. She holds an MBA from NYU Stern in finance and management and a BA in economics and creative writing from Columbia University. Alexandra has over a decade of experience in journalism and previously served as the senior editor of digital for ABC News, where she directed daily news coverage across topics through major events of the early 2020s for the network's website, including stock market trends, the remote and return-to-work revolutions, and the national economy. Before that, she pioneered politics and election coverage for Elite Daily and went on to serve as the senior news editor for that group.
Alexandra was recognized with an "Up & Comer" award at the 2018 Folio: Top Women in Media awards, and she was asked twice by the Nieman Journalism Lab to contribute to their annual journalism predictions feature. She has also been asked to speak on panels and give presentations on the future of media and on business and media, including by the Center for Communication and Twipe.
-
Here's Why I'm Upgrading to the iPhone 17
The iPhone 17 is here. Learn what's new, where the best deals are and whether it's worth the switch.
-
September Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary
The September Fed meeting is a key economic event, with Wall Street keyed into what Fed Chair Powell & Co. will do about interest rates.
-
September Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary
The September Fed meeting is a key economic event, with Wall Street keyed into what Fed Chair Powell & Co. will do about interest rates.
-
I'm an Investment Strategist: This Is How the Fed's Next Rate Move Could Impact Your Wallet
Interest rate cuts might be coming, which could affect everything from your credit card debt to your mortgage. It's smart to prepare now — here's how.
-
I'm a Retirement Planner: These Are Three Common Tax Mistakes You Could Be Making With Your Investments
Don't pay more tax on your investments than you need to. You can keep more money in your pocket (or for retirement) by avoiding these three common mistakes.
-
Want to Shave 10 Hours Off Your Workweek? A Startup Expert Shows How AI Can Help
Artificial intelligence is overhauling how companies operate, freeing up entrepreneurs and their workers to skip the menial stuff and get down to business.
-
Dow Gains 617 Points as Rate Cuts Near: Stock Market Today
Wednesday's economic data didn't shift Wall Street's expectations that the Fed is preparing for a rate cut at next week's meeting.
-
Hot August CPI Report Doesn't Shift the Rate-Cut Needle: What the Experts Say
The August CPI came in higher than forecast on a monthly basis, but Wall Street still expects a rate cut at next week's Fed meeting.
-
Four Clever and Tax-Efficient Ways to Ditch Concentrated Stock Holdings, From a Financial Planner
Holding too much of one company's stock can put your financial future at risk. Here are four ways you can strategically unwind such positions without triggering a massive tax bill.
-
Beyond Banking: How Credit Unions Serve Their Communities
Credit unions differentiate themselves from traditional banks by operating as member-owned financial cooperatives focused on community support and service rather than shareholder profit.