Small Businesses See Glimmers of Hope Amid Struggles: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Businesses are filling more open positions, but inflation is still a cause for concern.


As the U.S. economy improves slowly, small businesses are also beginning to see some signs of hope for the future. To help you understand what is going on and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly-experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest...
The economic outlook among small businesses is looking up a bit. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index shot up in June, reaching a seven-month high. Still, small-business sentiment remains weak, with June’s reading marking the 18th straight month in which the index came in below its 49-year average.
Even so, smalls have also turned more hopeful about the direction of the economy over the next six months. The number of owners who think now is a good time to expand rose in June, and sales expectations ticked up. Smalls are struggling a bit less to find qualified workers.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The labor market remains a concern for small businesses, but recent improvements in labor supply have lowered the share of firms that can’t fill an opening. About 42% of small firms reported job openings they couldn’t fill — the lowest share since March 2021. Most weren’t filled because employers couldn’t find a qualified candidate for them. Inflation, while easing, also remains a major worry for many small firms.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related Content
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

Rodrigo Sermeño covers the financial services, housing, small business, and cryptocurrency industries for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in 2014, he worked for several think tanks and non-profit organizations in Washington, D.C., including the New America Foundation, the Streit Council, and the Arca Foundation. Rodrigo graduated from George Mason University with a bachelor's degree in international affairs. He also holds a master's in public policy from George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government.
-
Claiming the Standard Deduction? Here Are Five Tax Breaks for Retirement in 2025
Tax Tips If you’re retired and filing taxes, these five tax credits and deductions could provide thousands in relief (if you qualify).
-
QUIZ: Test Your Retirement IQ
Quiz Are you smarter than…everyone else? Test your retirement smarts with this quiz.
-
Apple Readies for AI Upgrade with New iPhones
The Kiplinger Letter The tech giant has stumbled when it comes to artificial intelligence, but a new batch of iPhones will help it make headway.
-
Japan Enters a New Era of Risk and Reform
The Kiplinger Letter Japan has entered a pivotal moment in its economic history, undertaking ambitious policy and structural reforms to escape from decades of stagnation.
-
How Consumers Are Tinkering with Cutting-Edge AI
The Kiplinger Letter Companies launching artificial intelligence tools are jostling for consumer attention. Some products are already building a deep connection with users.
-
After Years of Stagnant Growth, Hope Emerges for EU Economy
The Kiplinger Letter Can a German fiscal push outweigh French political peril?
-
Small Businesses Are Racing to Use AI
The Kiplinger Letter Spurred on by competitive pressures, small businesses are racing to adopt AI. A recent snapshot shows the technology’s day-to-day uses.
-
How AI Puts Company Data at Risk
The Kiplinger Letter Cybersecurity professionals are racing to ward off AI threats while also using AI tools to shore up defenses.
-
Trump's Economic Intervention
The Kiplinger Letter What to Make of Washington's Increasingly Hands-On Approach to Big Business
-
AI Start-ups Are Rolling in Cash
The Kiplinger Letter Investors are plowing record sums of money into artificial intelligence start-ups. Even as sales grow swiftly, losses are piling up for AI firms.