Small Businesses See Glimmers of Hope Amid Struggles: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts

As the U.S. economy improves slowly, small businesses are also beginning to see some signs of hope for the future. To help you understand what is going on and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly-experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest...

The economic outlook among small businesses is looking up a bit. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index shot up in June, reaching a seven-month high. Still, small-business sentiment remains weak, with June’s reading marking the 18th straight month in which the index came in below its 49-year average. 

Even so, smalls have also turned more hopeful about the direction of the economy over the next six months. The number of owners who think now is a good time to expand rose in June, and sales expectations ticked up. Smalls are struggling a bit less to find qualified workers. 

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The labor market remains a concern for small businesses, but recent improvements in labor supply have lowered the share of firms that can’t fill an opening. About 42% of small firms reported job openings they couldn’t fill — the lowest share since March 2021. Most weren’t filled because employers couldn’t find a qualified candidate for them. Inflation, while easing, also remains a major worry for many small firms.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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