Magic Formula Investing
The investment strategy outlined in Joel Greenblatt's <i>The Little Book That Beats the Market</i> may disappoint you over short periods. But that's not the point. With any investment method that makes sense, the key is to stick it out.
Great companies at discount prices -- can you imagine a better recipe for investment success? I can't, which is why I called your attention a year ago to Joel Greenblatt's The Little Book That Beats the Market (Wiley, $20). Well, guess what? Since I wrote about The Little Book last March, Greenblatt's formula has laid an egg. Does it need fixing?
Two numbers
The Little Book argues that if you know a mere two numbers, you can identify those great companies selling at discount prices. The first is return on capital, because a company that can reinvest its profits at a high rate of return will become a very successful business. The second is earnings yield, or earnings per share divided by the share price. The higher the earnings yield, the more bargain-priced the stock.
To make it easy for everyone to find great buys by the numbers, Greenblatt maintains Magicformulainvesting.com, where you can order up (free, so far) your own list of candidate stocks that score best by the two criteria. Another Web site, FolioFn.com, lets you create your own portfolio of dozens of stocks and add to them regularly, in small amounts, for $199 a year. Could investing get more convenient than this?
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Early in the new year I get an e-mail from Bruce Paton, an avid Kiplinger's reader. He read my column last year, and on April 1 he logged the names of 25 stocks generated by Magicformulainvesting.com. In the ensuing eight months, Paton reports, one company in the portfolio was taken over, and the remainder gained 5%, compared with 11% for Standard Poor's 500-stock index. (Including the taken-over stock would have raised the return to 7.7%.) What gives with the magic formula? Paton asks.
I forward his note to Greenblatt, and the response I get from Joel is pretty much what I expected. In his book, Greenblatt makes it exceedingly clear that from year to year, the returns on a basket of stocks identified by high return on capital and high earnings yield move around a lot. For example, a typical magic-formula portfolio whipped the SP 500 by 20 percentage points in 2005. But last year, the results went the other way. In fact, over periods of several years, the magic formula may not beat the market.
Greenblatt's reply to me takes note of these facts, and adds, "The essential point of the book is that buying above-average companies at below-average prices makes sense and should work over the long term; this certainly proved to be the case over the past 18 years." One fear about any investment method is that if everyone follows it, nobody will benefit. So Joel goes on to say: "The formula should continue to work precisely because almost all investors abandon or will not follow a strategy that has not performed well over the recent past." This is good news for those who stick it out, Joel concludes.
Stocks for 2007
And that's my advice to you: With any investment method that makes inherent sense, stick it out and don't get hung up on short-term trends. The latest magic-formula list of 25 stocks with a market capitalization of $1 billion or more contains names both familiar (Motorola, Palm) and obscure (CGI Group, K-Swiss). Opportunity knocks for those smart enough to realize it.
To continue reading this article
please register for free
This is different from signing in to your print subscription
Why am I seeing this? Find out more here
-
Is a Phased Retirement Right for You?
Want to keep working, just not as hard? A phased retirement may just be the answer.
By Kimberly Lankford Published
-
Four Tips to Make Your Sales Presentation a Winner
Being prepared and not being boring can go a long way toward persuading a potential customer to buy into what you’re offering.
By H. Dennis Beaver, Esq. Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Rebound Ahead of Big Week for Earnings
Equities rallied on easing geopolitical tensions, upcoming quarterly results.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Spirals as Netflix Nosedives
A big earnings boom for credit card giant American Express helped the Dow notch another win.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks
The two indexes have closed lower for five straight sessions.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Dow Slips After Travelers' Earnings Miss
The property and casualty insurer posted a bottom-line miss as catastrophe losses spiked.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Stabilize After Powell's Rate-Cut Warning
The main indexes temporarily tumbled after Fed Chair Powell said interest rates could stay higher for longer.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Reverse Lower as Treasury Yields Spike
A good-news-is-bad-news retail sales report lowered rate-cut expectations and caused government bond yields to surge.
By Karee Venema Last updated
-
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Leads as Magnificent 7 Stocks Rise
Strength in several mega-cap tech and communication services stocks kept the main indexes higher Thursday.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Tumble After a Hot Inflation Print
Equities retreated after inflation data called the Fed's rate-cut plans into question.
By Dan Burrows Published