House GOP Projects Bigger Tax Refunds in 2026: Who Wins and Who Loses

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Many Americans might have more than one reason to celebrate the New Year. Tax refunds in 2026 are projected to be the "largest ever,” according to an analysis cited by the Republican-led Ways and Means Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The projected increase is expected to boost the average federal tax refund amount by around $1,000 for taxpayers.

However, that benefit is not universal: The size of your tax refund, if any, will ultimately depend on tax break eligibility requirements and other factors (like your filing status, taxable income, etc.).

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Here are the households set to receive a potentially higher tax refund, along with the steps you can take now to prepare.

Largest tax refunds ever?

“Tax filers could expect an extra $1,000 bump to their tax refund next year,” The Ways & Means Committee reported out last month in a press release. “[It] could be a record-breaking tax refund season.”

The total, accumulated impact of the new law is expected to be $91 billion in additional refunds in 2026 compared to last year, according to the release.
This potentially translates to an average tax refund of $4,151 during the 2026 filing season, up from the IRS’s average of $3,151 last year.

The House release used an analysis conducted by Piper Sandler, a financial services firm. The results were shared with the public via a financial podcast.

Like some previous studies of its kind, the Sandler analysis reveals that middle and upper-income households, specifically those earning between $60,000 and $400,000, are expected to benefit the most from the new Trump/GOP tax and spending law.

Tax refunds 2026: Bigger checks

Since the Trump tax bill was passed mid-year, new tax benefits were not withheld from paychecks in 2025. Because of this, next year’s tax refunds are expected to be bigger for those who can take advantage of the new provisions.

For instance, you might receive a higher 2026 tax refund if:

You’re a homeowner in a high-tax state. The new tax law temporarily increased the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 annually for households with incomes of $500,000 or less.
You’re an adult aged 65 or older. The new temporary “senior” bonus deduction may provide tax relief for those with a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $250,000 or less ($175,000 if single filing).
You’re a tipped employee or overtime worker. The new tip and overtime tax deductions allow eligible working taxpayers to receive up to $25,000 in federal deductions for the 2026 filing season (for married couples filing jointly; eligible single filers may receive up to $12,500).

Yet it’s important to remember that the anticipated $1,000 increase to tax refunds is an average estimate, and not a guarantee. Your individual financial circumstances impact your overall tax refund, if any. But if you’re anticipating a bigger 2026 tax refund, the IRS recommends steps you can take now to prepare (more on that later).

Does everyone get a bigger refund in 2026?

Some individuals might not receive a bigger tax refund in the future, but actually lose out on tax savings — even facing higher tax bills — due to the 2025 Trump/GOP tax and spending law enacted in July.

For example:

Low-income households may lose out. As reported by Kiplinger, families earning $53,000 or less could lose an average of $65 by 2033 due to certain cuts to Medicaid and other social programs, and taxpayers earning $18,000 or less could lose 1.1% of their income by 2027.
Most future student loan forgiveness will soon be federally taxable. This reverses the temporary tax exemption provided by the Biden-era American Rescue Plan Act. CNBC reports that a borrower with student debt of approximately $49,321 could see a tax bill increase between $5,800 to over $10,000 in the 2027 filing season.

Note: For more information on these breakouts, read Kiplinger’s report, Biggest Winners and Losers in Trump's New Tax Plan.

IRS tax refund check projection

The IRS is urging taxpayers to prepare early for the 2026 tax filing season.

“It is important for taxpayers to get ready now because the One, Big, Beautiful Bill can significantly affect federal taxes, credits, and deductions,” the federal tax agency announced in a press release late last month.

To help “avoid errors that could delay refunds,” taxpayers are urged by the IRS to gather important tax information, like:

W-2 Forms, Forms 1099, and other key documents (though delay tax filing until all necessary information is organized).
Bank account information, including your direct deposit account and routing numbers. Starting this filing season, the IRS is phasing out paper checks (yet limited exceptions may apply).

As Kiplinger reported, the IRS may encounter operational issues in the upcoming filing season. The agency will be operating with a significantly reduced staff this tax season, which could result in longer wait times on the phone and even delay tax refunds. By preparing early, taxpayers position themselves to potentially receive refunds more promptly.

Stay tuned.

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Kate is a CPA with experience in audit and technology. As a Tax Writer at Kiplinger, Kate believes that tax and finance news should meet people where they are today, across cultural, educational, and disciplinary backgrounds.