Biggest Winners and Losers in Trump's New Tax Plan

The numbers are in, and experts are signaling the biggest winners and losers from the Trump administration’s new tax and spending package.

At the center of Trump’s megabill (sometimes called the "One Big Beautiful Bill" or OBBB) is the extension and temporary enhancement of tax cuts first implemented in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017.

Signed into law on July 4, the GOP legislation is projected to add nearly $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.

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The measure also pays for new tax cuts, estimated to decrease federal revenues by $4.5 billion through 2034, through significant funding cuts to key programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.

Some of the changes in the new tax law may be beneficial for some households, while others are barred from accessing key tax breaks.

Here’s a breakdown of which taxpayers stand to benefit — and which could pay more — under Trump’s sweeping new tax plan for 2025 and beyond.

Trump’s new tax law: Biggest losers

Rural hospitals and clinics that rely on Medicaid

Rural hospitals and clinics, already underdogs, now face even harsher struggles under Trump’s new tax landscape.

As Kiplinger has reported, hundreds of rural hospitals across the U.S. are anticipating imminent closures and potential service reductions due to Trump’s steep Medicaid cuts.

The Trump administration’s ‘big beautiful bill’ slashes Medicaid spending by an estimated $1.02 trillion to offset tax cuts. That’s the largest federal rollback to Medicaid to date.

Historically, patients in rural hospitals and clinics rely on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) to pay for services.

As a result of Medicaid cuts, over 300 rural hospitals face immediate closure. Some experts predict that nearly every state will be impacted, with most expected to see more than 25% of hospitals shut down. In 11 states, some 50% or more of hospitals are at risk of closing their doors.

For more information, see Is Your Local Hospital Closing Soon Due to Medicaid Cuts?

People earning under $53,000 a year

The lowest earners in the U.S. will see little benefit from Trump’s tax cuts and spending bill.

• A household earning up to $18,000 a year would lose an estimated $165 in after-tax dollars by 2027; that’s a 1.1% loss of income.
• By 2033, households in this income group would see a loss of up to $1,520 on average, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Meanwhile, folks earning up to $53,000 a year could lose $65 on average by 2033 under the newly enacted ‘big beautiful bill.’

Families that rely on food stamps

To help pay for major tax cuts in the ‘one big beautiful bill,’ the Trump administration enacted significant changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). That program was previously/also known as “food stamps.”

Trumps’s tax legislation cuts SNAP funding by about 20%, or $186 billion over the next decade, putting millions of families at risk of losing food stamps.

The new provisions to the program are projected to cause 22.3 million families to lose some or all of their benefits, according to the Urban Institute.

On average, households are projected to lose $146 each month in SNAP support under Trump’s tax legislation. That’s a loss of $1,752 for a full-year recipient.

Undocumented people with children

If you are undocumented or currently on the pathway to citizenship, Trump’s new tax legislation will impact your access to tax breaks.

This includes access to SNAP benefits, tax breaks for marketplace health insurance like the Premium Tax Credit (PTC), and key family tax credits like the federal Child Tax Credit (CTC).

• As a snapshot, 4.5 million children, the majority of whom are U.S. citizens, would no longer be eligible for the CTC under the OBBB as new rules require a parent to have a Social Security Number (SSN).
• Other education tax breaks you won’t have access to unless you have a SSN include the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) and the Lifetime Learning Credit (LLC).

The new tax law also increases immigration fees and imposes new fees to take effect immediately.

For instance, a parole application now has a new fee of $1,000, and the temporary protected status (TPS) application fee increases from $50 to $500.

These are just some provisions that will impact undocumented individuals and households.

Student loan borrowers

The Trump administration is restructuring student loan borrowing as we know it. Under the new law, the Biden-era SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) plan is suspended.

This will impact 8 million borrowers enrolled in the program who rely on income-driven repayment programs as a path to loan forgiveness. Borrowers with loans in SAVE forbearance will see loans begin accruing interest on Aug. 1, 2025.

The OBBB eliminates the requirement that borrowers have a partial financial hardship to qualify for income-driven repayment (IBR) plans. Other changes include placing loan limits on part-time students, undergraduate, and parent borrowers.

The measure also reduces the number of repayment plans to just two programs.

For more information, see Trump Targets Student Loan Forgiveness: What it Means for Taxes and Repayment.

Biggest winners from Trump’s tax law

Homeowners in high-tax states

One provision in Trump’s ‘one big beautiful bill’ could help homeowners in expensive states put thousands of dollars back into their pockets.

The bill temporarily raises the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 annually for folks with incomes up to $500,000.

The SALT deduction allows taxpayers who itemize to subtract certain state and local taxes from their federal taxable income. This can help you reduce your property tax, income tax, and sales tax burden.

As an example, see our report on how Californians can benefit from the new SALT cap.

Households with incomes above $96,000

If you earn $96,000 per year, Trump’s new tax cuts and spending legislation will put more money into your pocket.

• Those who make $96,000 annually can expect to receive $3,955 in after-tax income in 2027.
• Households earning $179,000 per year are projected to get $6,690 in after-tax dollars by 2027.
• Anyone who earns $272,000 annually will receive $9,455 in after-tax income by 2027, and that figure continues to grow the more you make.
• Those in the top 0.1% can expect to get up to $301,550 in after-tax dollars by 2027.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis, most of the gains for high-earners come from “a boost to corporate profits” from reinstating the TCJA's initial cost recovery system and upholding reduced tax rates for multinational corporations.

By 2030, some of those gains will be reduced as the SALT cap reverts to $10,000, impacting high earners.

Workers who rely on tips

Millions of workers across the country rely on tips to support their income, and the ‘big beautiful bill’ allows some of that hard-earned cash to go untaxed starting this year.

The new tax law incorporates a measure known as the ‘No Tax on Tips Act.’ The provision allows workers who receive tips to deduct up to $25,000 in reported cash tips from their taxed wages at the federal level.

The deduction phases out for those earning over $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and is scheduled to expire after 2028.

Data show that about 4 million people in the United States, or one out of every forty workers, depend on tips to pay for food on the table. No tax on tips is a big win for hospitality, services, and gig workers for the time being.

For more information, see: No Tax on Tips Bill Approved: What it Means for You.

Older adults 65 and older

Another win tucked within the so-called ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is a bonus deduction for older adults.

The new $6,000 deduction will be available to individuals age 65 and older, with eligibility set at $75,000 in income for single filers and $150,000 for couples. The deduction phases out above those levels.

This provision is temporary and will be available from 2025 through 2028, so you won’t want to miss out. It will also supplement the existing extra standard deduction available to older adults.

What’s missing from Trump’s campaign promise? GOP lawmakers didn't end federal taxes on Social Security benefits as part of Trump’s megabill. Economists had long warned that eliminating taxes on SS benefits was riddled with problems.

Raising the standard deduction for older adults appears to be a middle-ground effort to make up for this failed promise.

For more information, see 2025 Tax Deduction Change for Those Over 65.

Families with children

If you have children or are planning on growing your family, Trump’s new tax law includes some major expansions to existing family tax breaks.

To start, the federal child tax credit increases from $2,000 to $2,000 per qualifying child on your 2025 tax return. If Congress had failed to expand the tax break, the maximum child tax credit would have reverted to $1,000 in 2026.

Additionally, the maximum refundable portion is $1,700 in 2025. That’s the amount you’ll be able to claim on the tax return you generally file in 2026. The bad news: Not everyone will be able to claim the child tax credit.

To claim the CTC, the child and the taxpayer (parent or guardian) must have a Social Security number.

The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCT) is also permanently enhanced from 35% to 50% for qualifying expenses under the newly enacted OBBB.

Lastly, the measure enhances the federal adoption tax credit for the 2025 tax year by allowing parents to claim up to $5,000 in credits and making the tax break partially refundable. The credit is now worth up to $17,280 (up from $16,810 in 2024).

For more information, see our report: The Child Tax Credit 2025: How Much Is It?

More on the OBBB

• New GOP Car Loan Deduction: Which Cars and Buyers Qualify
• ‘Unprecedented’ Private School Voucher Tax Credit in Trump’s Megabill
• How Trump's Tax Bill Will Boost or Shrink Your Next Tax Refund