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Prolonged recession. The market seems priced for a short and shallow recession. But the economic downturn could be deeper or much more protracted than assumed.
Odds of occurrence: 30%
Earnings tank. Wall Street's earnings estimates for 2008 and 2009 may be too optimistic. Individual stocks could fall each time analysts trim forecasts, causing big declines in market indexes.
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Odds of occurrence: 50%
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | The Worst Is Over |
| Row 1 - Cell 0 | The Best Ways to Invest in Bonds |
| Row 2 - Cell 0 | Spotting a Stock-Market Bottom |
| Row 3 - Cell 0 | How the Experts See It |
Gasoline prices pass $4 a gallon. Rising prices at the pump are an enormous tax on everyone, eating into disposable income and discretionary spending. Gas prices higher than $4 a gallon would squeeze consumption.
Odds of occurrence: 35%
Sharp overseas slowdown. Surging exports and buoyant economic growth abroad have cushioned the U.S. economy. But rising inflation overseas and the effects of a U.S. recession and ailing credit markets could lead to a global slowdown.
Odds of occurrence: 25%
The Fed reverses course. The market assumes that the Fed will continue to cut short-term interest rates. But inflationary pressures and an effort to slow the slide of the dollar may force the Fed to reverse course within six to 12 months.
Odds of occurrence: 25%
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Dow Leads in Mixed Session on Amgen Earnings: Stock Market TodayThe rest of Wall Street struggled as Advanced Micro Devices earnings caused a chip-stock sell-off.
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How to Watch the 2026 Winter Olympics Without OverpayingHere’s how to stream the 2026 Winter Olympics live, including low-cost viewing options, Peacock access and ways to catch your favorite athletes and events from anywhere.
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Here’s How to Stream the Super Bowl for LessWe'll show you the least expensive ways to stream football's biggest event.
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How the Stock Market Performed in the First Year of Trump's Second TermSix months after President Donald Trump's inauguration, take a look at how the stock market has performed.
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What the Rich Know About Investing That You Don'tPeople like Warren Buffett become people like Warren Buffett by following basic rules and being disciplined. Here's how to accumulate real wealth.
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How to Invest for Rising Data Integrity RiskAmid a broad assault on venerable institutions, President Trump has targeted agencies responsible for data critical to markets. How should investors respond?
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What Tariffs Mean for Your Sector ExposureNew, higher and changing tariffs will ripple through the economy and into share prices for many quarters to come.
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How to Invest for Fall Rate Cuts by the FedThe probability the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in October is now greater than 90%.
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Are Buffett and Berkshire About to Bail on Kraft Heinz Stock?Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway own a lot of Kraft Heinz stock, so what happens when they decide to sell KHC?
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How the Stock Market Performed in the First 6 Months of Trump's Second TermSix months after President Donald Trump's inauguration, take a look at how the stock market has performed.
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Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged: What the Experts Are SayingFederal Reserve As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee took a 'wait-and-see' approach toward borrowing costs.
