Thanks to the financial services industry, over the decades investors have been conditioned to focus on the returns their portfolios generate, more than on cash flow. The industry has emphasized returns, as they make a great sales tool for financial professionals. But that hardly helps investors (more on the problem with historical and average returns in my next column).
Of course, it is important to have positive returns, but simply focusing on this elevates what I call “sequence of returns risk.” This refers to the phenomena where portfolio returns in the early part of the investment cycle have a disproportionate impact on the long-term outcome of the portfolio – ergo, a 15% loss in year one has a compounding effect that is much greater than having a 15% lost in later years of the investment cycle.
The psychological impact of this is that it often causes investors to change their investment allocation to a more conservative mix, or worse yet sell near market lows, thereby compounding the impact of the early negative returns and making achieving their investment goals much more challenging. If, however, investors were to simply focus on cash flow, then they probably wouldn’t give in to any temptations to time the market or take corrective actions during a downtown, which is a natural part of a full market cycle.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
For instance, take two identical $1 million portfolios, which are set up to distribute $50,000 annually. Investor No. 1 has the unfortunate luck of investing at the peak of the market cycle and being subjected to two negative performance years at the outset. Investor No. 2 experiences positive returns for the first two years.
| Year | Portfolio 1 annual return | Ending balance after $50k distribution | Year | Portfolio 2 annual return | Ending balance after $50k distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -5% | $945,000 | 1 | 10% | $1,050,000 |
| 2 | -3% | $866,650 | 2 | 20% | $1,210,000 |
| 3 | 10% | $903,315 | 3 | -3% | $1,123,700 |
| 4 | 7% | $916,547 | 4 | -5% | $1,017,515 |
| 5 | -15% | $729,065 | 5 | 7% | $1,038,741 |
| 6 | 20% | $824,878 | 6 | -15% | $832,930 |
| 7 | 1% | $783,127 | 7 | 8% | $849,564 |
| 8 | -3% | $709,633 | 8 | -3% | $774,077 |
| 9 | 8% | $716,404 | 9 | 7% | $778,263 |
| 10 | 7% | $716,552 | 10 | 1% | $736,045 |
Average annual return for both portfolios = 2.7%
Experience has taught me that investors like Investor No. 1 will likely become nervous, and at the very least will doubt their strategy and be tempted to sell. Both portfolios have a 10-year average annual return of 2.7%, and both distribute the desired $50,000. The ending balance between the two portfolios is about $20,000 apart, well within a reasonable margin of error for long-term investment return expectations.
Astute investors know that portfolio returns are heavily influenced by market cycles, which are uncontrollable. By focusing on cash-flow, investors are better able to ignore short-term market gyrations and sequence of returns risk. In my next column, I’ll be discussing the importance and significant impact portfolio costs have on long-term performance.
This column is the third in a six-part series on investor education.
- Column 1 – Understanding your goals
- Column 2 – Why benchmarking to the S&P 500 is not a good strategy
- Column 3 – It’s about cash-flow, not returns
- Column 4 – How much are you paying for your portfolio?
- Column 5 – 5 critical questions to ask your financial advisor
- Column 6 – ‘Senior Inflation’ the not so silent retirement killer
-
Planning a Major Home Renovation? 3 Smart Ways to Finance ItFrom HELOCs to personal loans, here’s how to pay for a major home renovation without draining your savings.
-
Six Warren Buffett Quotes Every Retiree Should Live ByThe 'Oracle of Omaha' knows a thing or two about life, investing and retirement.
-
Budget Hacks Won't Cut It: These Five Strategies From a Financial Planner Can Help Build Significant WealthCutting out your daily latte might make you feel virtuous, but tracking pennies won't pay off. Here are some strategies that can actually build wealth.
-
To Unwrap a Budget-Friendly Holiday, Consider These Smart Moves From a Financial ProfessionalYou can avoid a 'holiday hangover' of debt by setting a realistic budget, making a detailed list, considering alternative gifts, starting to save now and more.
-
Treat Home Equity Like Other Investments in Your Retirement Plan: Look at Its Track RecordHomeowners who are considering using home equity in their retirement plan can analyze it like they do their other investments. Here's how.
-
Why Does It Take Insurers So Darn Long to Pay Claims? An Insurance Expert ExplainsThe process of verification, investigation and cost assessment after a loss is complex and goes beyond simply cutting a check.
-
Two Reasons to Consider Deferred Compensation in the Wake of the OBBB, From a Financial PlannerDeferred compensation plans let you potentially lower your current taxes and help to keep you out of a higher tax bracket. It's important to consider the risks.
-
Financial Fact vs Fiction: The Truth About Social Security Entitlement (and Reverse Mortgages' Bad Rap)Despite the 'entitlement' moniker, Social Security and Medicare are both benefits that workers earn. And reverse mortgages can be a strategic tool for certain people. Plus, we're setting the record straight on three other myths.
-
The End of 2%? An Investment Adviser's Case for Why the Fed Should Raise Its Inflation TargetYes, inflation can be tough on those living on fixed incomes, but protecting us from it too strictly could do our overall economy more harm than good.
-
Medicare Open Enrollment: Why You Need to Pay Extra Attention to Part D, From a Financial AdviserThe lowest premium for prescription drug coverage might not actually save you the most money. Make sure you take copays into consideration and do the math.
