Predicting Elections With the Economy: More Art Than Science

When it comes to presidential elections, is it really the economy that matters?

"It's the economy, stupid" has become accepted wisdom in the 20 years since it guided Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, reminding staffers to focus on this issue over all others. And in fact, there's a huge volume of economic research to back up the assertion; various mathematical models use the performance of the economy to predict vote totals, often successfully.

SEE ALSO: Why Romney and Obama Are Already Fighting

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John Maggs
Senior Economics Editor, The Kiplinger Letter