Advertisement
Politics

E-Mail Blowup Unlikely to Derail Clinton

With millions of ballots already cast, news of renewed FBI interest in Hillary Clinton's e-mails may be too late to change the outcome.

Before Friday’s FBI bombshell about newly found Hillary Clinton e-mails, a fractured America was poised to elect Clinton over Donald Trump. Will that change? It’s too soon to tell, but the race will certainly tighten.

Here’s what we know: The FBI is reopening its investigation to determine whether a new batch of e-mails discovered in an unrelated case contains classified information.

Advertisement - Article continues below

Since it seems unlikely that findings of the probe will be revealed before election day, the big question is how the announcement will sway undecided voters, who make up 6% or so of likely voters in most polls. Even less clear: How do they react? Do they back Trump? Do they go for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? Do they stay home?

If most of them gravitate to Trump, the race could end up dead even. That’s a big if, especially if no major wrongdoing is hinted at in the preliminary stages.

But even in a maximum-damage scenario for Clinton, Trump may come up short, as millions of ballots have already been cast, favoring Clinton in many toss-up states.

How we saw it before the email news: Clinton will win with at least 294 electoral votes (270 needed). Trump should get at least 180, with 64 up for grabs in Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Arizona. (See map below.) To win, Trump would need all four toss-ups and at least two states now with Clinton. That’s a lot of ground to make up in 11 days, with or without the new disclosures. Trump’s been his own worst enemy, bashing immigrants and women.

That allowed Clinton to overcome her earlier campaign missteps and build a cushion among those groups that stood up to Trump’s sizable advantage among white men. With the latest news, Clinton won’t top Barack Obama’s 2008 electoral total. By the way, at this point in 2012, Obama led Mitt Romney by just one point.

STATES template
STATES template

Thinkstock

Advertisement
Advertisement

Most Popular

11 Dividend-Paying Stocks You Should Think Twice About
dividend stocks

11 Dividend-Paying Stocks You Should Think Twice About

Dividend-paying stocks often can be a store of safety, but 2020 has been difficult on income equities. These 11 picks look like shaky plays despite th…
September 21, 2020
How To Buy a Roth IRA When You Make Too Much To Qualify For One
Roth IRAs

How To Buy a Roth IRA When You Make Too Much To Qualify For One

With their tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals, Roth IRAs are a great deal — if you qualify. If you don’t, well, there’s still a way to get into …
September 23, 2020
High-Tech Aids for Aging in Place
Caregiving

High-Tech Aids for Aging in Place

Apple Watch and other technology provides fast feedback, comfort for older users, and a powerful assist for caregivers.
September 23, 2020

Recommended

Election 2020: Joe Biden's Tax Plans
taxes

Election 2020: Joe Biden's Tax Plans

With the economy in trouble, tax policy takes on added importance in the 2020 presidential election. So, let's take a look at what Joe Biden has said …
September 18, 2020
The Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S. History
Economic Forecasts

The Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S. History

Wind, water, fire and drought have all wreaked havoc on the United States. What’s been the worst?
August 26, 2020
Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot Voting
Politics

Vote by Mail: A State-by-State Guide to Absentee Ballot Voting

With health authorities recommending people continue to social distance, the idea of voting by mail is becoming an increasingly hot topic.
August 4, 2020
Answers to PPP Loan FAQs (Now That There's Fresh Funding for the Loans)
small business loans

Answers to PPP Loan FAQs (Now That There's Fresh Funding for the Loans)

Small business owners are getting another crack at Paycheck Protection Program loans. Here are answers to some frequently asked questions about the lo…
July 21, 2020