Are Tariffs and the ‘Pumpkin Spice Tax’ Coming for Your Fall Coffee Budget?

Before the air has even cooled in many places and tree leaves have yet to fall, Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) has once again returned to signal the unofficial start of autumn.

Since its debut more than 20 years ago, the PSL has become beloved by many fall enthusiasts worldwide. Starbucks reports that hundreds of millions of PSLs have been sold, making it the company’s most popular seasonal beverage.

This year, Starbucks officially launched its fall menu on August 26, 2025, marking an early start to the season, catering to eager pumpkin spice lovers.

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However, some consumers feel that the price tag of their favorite fall beverage has steadily increased. In recent years, that concern has given rise to talk of a so-called “pumpkin spice tax.”

But is that pumpkin price premium real? And what happens with Trump tariffs in the mix? Here’s more to know.

Starbucks fall menu 2025

Despite inflation pressures and looming tariffs, the 2025 Starbucks fall menu launched without a PSL price increase compared to last year.

A Grande PSL is priced between $5.75 and $7.25 in U.S. company-operated stores. (Note: Prices for Starbucks items can vary by region and individual store location.)

But last year, LendingTree found that "on average, pumpkin-flavored products cost 7.4% more than their nonpumpkin alternatives."

This year's "Pumpkin Premium" report by Empower finds that 44% of those surveyed believe tariffs and inflation are making pumpkin-flavored items cost more. About "39% say the 'pumpkin spice tax' or the premium price on seasonal items is real."

But according to the research, more than half (54%) of those surveyed said "buying these products is something they look forward to every fall."

About one in three shoppers said they were willing to pay more to enjoy the seasonal flavor, spending on average $32 per month on pumpkin spice items during autumn, with millennials doubling that amount at $64.

So, what about the “pumpkin spice tax”?

• The pumpkin spice tax isn’t a literal tax. It’s essentially a nickname for the small premium consumers pay for pumpkin-flavored goods each fall.
• What contributes to the premium? Wholesale pumpkin prices fluctuate seasonally but typically range from $0.30 to $0.60 per pound, which is more costly than synthetic flavorings.

Also, Starbucks reportedly uses real pumpkin puree in its PSL recipe, which is made from kabocha squash. That and the drink’s perennial popularity likely factor into the price consumers pay.

What is a pecan cortado from Starbucks?

Starbucks’ 2025 fall menu also includes a new pumpkin-inspired drink called the Pecan Oatmilk Cortado, along with returning favorites like the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew, Iced Pumpkin Cream Chai, and Pecan Crunch Oatmilk Latte.

On its website, the coffee company describes the Pecan Oatmilk Cortado as a combination of "three shots Starbucks Blonde Espresso with notes of pecan, rich brown butter, and holiday baking spices and steamed oatmilk...then sprinkled with a pecan crunch topping and served hot in an 8-ounce cup."

It’s also worth noting that the pumpkin spice tax notion extends beyond Starbucks.

Retailers like Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, and 7-Eleven cater to the pumpkin-flavored trend. The prices of their products are sometimes in a similar range, contributing to the overall seasonal cost premium that consumers experience with fall coffee.

So while pumpkin spice lovers might grumble about paying a premium for their seasonal fix, the “pumpkin spice tax” is mostly a reflection of seasonal demand and ingredient costs.

Will Trump tariffs drive up coffee prices in 2025?

But...coffee prices are expected to be pushed higher partly due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. That’s in large part because, since August 6, 2025, Brazil, the largest coffee exporter to the U.S., has faced a 50% tariff, adding significantly to the cost of imports.

That tariff increase comes alongside existing challenges, like drought and global demand, which, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, have already driven prices up by about 11% year-over-year as of May 2025.

Some analysts warn that these costs will likely be passed on to consumers.

So pumpkin spice aside, the combination of tariffs and supply pressures means your favorite brew could soon feel pricier at the checkout this year. Stay tuned.

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