Congress Faces Busy Autumn
Lawmakers likely will avert a government shutdown before hitting the campaign trail.
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A long and tricky to-do list awaits Congress when it reconvenes after its annual August break — the House on August 31 and the Senate on September 14. And time will be short, as lawmakers will be eager to campaign ahead of the November midterm elections.
The most pressing challenge this autumn: Averting a potential government shutdown. Failure to OK federal funding for the new fiscal year, starting October 1, would shutter many agencies.
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The good news is that both the House and Senate have passed a stopgap spending bill to keep agencies operating into December. But their measures differ, and compromising won’t be easy. Still, neither party wants a shutdown before the midterm elections, and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has hinted the Senate bill, after tweaks, should pass the House.
Voter ID legislation likely will go nowhere.
Not enough Republicans support it, despite pressure from President Trump to establish stricter rules to ensure only citizens can vote. Trump will continue to increase the pressure, but Senate Republicans opposing the move are holding firm, as are Democrats.
A college sports bill, another Trump priority, faces slightly better odds, though passage is uncertain. The bipartisan bill seeks to create a national framework for college athletic deals and would grant the NCAA an antitrust exemption so that it could enforce caps on payments to athletes, plus rules on eligibility and transfers. The Big Ten and Southeastern conferences back the bill, though some lawmakers say that the measure cedes too much power to schools over their student athletes.
Debate continues on a landmark cryptocurrency bill that would establish a regulatory framework for the industry. The bipartisan bill has gotten pushback from the banking industry, which views it as too crypto-friendly, and Democrats want stronger ethics provisions intended to curb the president’s ability to profit off his family’s thriving crypto dealings. But backers on Capitol Hill have invested a vast amount of effort on the measure and are determined to push it through.
Military funding is also in limbo, as members of both parties have pressed the administration and the Pentagon for more details on how the money will be spent, and how prior military resources have been used in the Iran war. The administration wants $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon, but Congress is unlikely to OK the full amount.
Republicans are increasingly likely to punt a massive partisan spending bill to after the midterms. Intra-GOP debates on what the reconciliation legislation should include are keeping the proposal on the back burner for now. The GOP has used the reconciliation process twice in the past year to pass bills in the Senate without Democratic support, including last year’s tax law. But this time will be trickier.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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