Stocks Rise, Oil Falls Amid Peace Talk: Stock Market Today
Market participants will pay close attention when President Donald Trump talks to the American people about the war in the Middle East tonight.
The main U.S. equity indexes extended their gains and crude oil futures extended their losses on Wednesday amid more talk of peace in the Middle East. Price action during the first trading session of the second quarter, like the last session of the first quarter, was all about hope for opening the Strait of Hormuz.
In yet another pre-opening-bell Truth Social post, President Donald Trump said "Iran's New Regime President" Masoud Pezeshkian, who has held his title since July 2024, "has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!" Trump also said the U.S. "will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!"
In a letter to the American people, Pezeshkian said they should "look beyond political rhetoric and reconsider the realities of Iran's past, present, and aspirations for a future defined not by confrontation, but by truth, dignity, and mutual understanding."
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Trump will address the American people at 9 pm Eastern Daylight Time. Investors, traders and speculators will listen for a real plan to end the war and open the strait as soon as possible.
"Over the past 48 hours," BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic observes, "there has been a cacophony of statements back and forth between Tehran and Washington, DC, some suggesting that the probability of de-escalation is rising. At the same time, kinetic action has continued unabated."
Papic notes that Iran targeted a Kuwaiti tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and a Qatari tanker off Doha, while the U.S. increased attacks on Iranian industrial capacity. "The world now awaits with great anticipation President Trump's remarks to the nation on April 1," he concludes.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures declined by 1.9% to $99.44. WTI, which closed the first quarter with a gain of 76.6%, is up 48.4% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Incoming economic data is solid
Markets welcomed a flow of expectations-beating reports from scheduled events on the economic calendar, including February retail sales from the Census Bureau, March private payrolls growth from ADP and March manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management.
Noting that 0.6% and 0.5% headline and core month-over-month retail sales growth for February "are pre-Iran conflict numbers," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates says they still reflect a healthy consumer.
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"We're two weeks away from the beginning of the 1Q26 earnings season," Navellier concludes. "If the good news about Iran continues and earnings go well, we should be back into the green for '26."
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% to 46,565, transitioning out of its worst weekly losing streak since February 2023 and into its best three days in almost a year. The broad-based S&P 500 had risen 0.7% at 6,575, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 1.2% at 21,840.
SpaceX files IPO papers
Elon Musk and SpaceX have filed paperwork for perhaps the hottest of the hot upcoming IPOs to watch. According to Bloomberg, it could happen as soon as June, with the Tesla (TSLA, +2.6%) CEO lining up SpaceX to be "the first of what could be a trio of mega-IPOs, ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic."
And they're working with a roster of banks that includes Bank of America (BAC, +1.1%), Citigroup (C, +1.7%), Goldman Sachs (GS, +1.7%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +0.4%) and Morgan Stanley (MS, +1.0%).
Bloomberg says SpaceX "could seek" a valuation of more than $1.75 trillion in a listing to raise as much as $75 billion. The current record for the biggest initial public offering is held by Saudi Aramco, which raised $29 billion in 2019. (Saudi Aramco is not listed on a primary U.S. stock exchange.)
"The company is considering a dual-class structure in the listing that would potentially give insiders such as Musk extra voting power to dominate decision making," Bloomberg reports.
Can Nike still rebound?
Nike (NKE, -15.5%) had a market cap of $100 billion as recently as December 15, 2025. In the aftermath of weak guidance and in-line fiscal 2026 third-quarter results, the athleisure icon has now lost about a third of its value in little more than three months.
The No. 1 question on the mind of UBS analyst Jay Sole before its report was about the Middle East, and he does expect Nike's top line to suffer in Europe, the Middle East and Africa as well as in China.
"Looking ahead into FY27," Sole writes, "our sales growth expectations for NKE have decreased due to weaker outlooks in these two regions." The consumer discretionary stock is "still not cheap," Sole adds, and its current valuation "shows a good rebound is still priced in."
The way Sole sees it, the risk is "this rebound takes much longer than the market expects." Sole reiterated his Neutral (Hold) rating but reduced his 12-month target price from $58 to $54 for Nike stock.
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