Early in the morning, it looked like Tuesday would be a little less volatile than Monday. But President Donald Trump took to Truth Social 45 minutes into the session to say he'll raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports by another 25%, up to 50%, effective Wednesday morning.
And the three main U.S. equity benchmarks burrowed deeper into the red. Tech stocks caught bids and led a late rally, though all of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower.
Tesla (TSLA) stock was firmly in the green from the opening bell onward after President Trump posted shortly after midnight, "I’m going to buy a brand new Tesla tomorrow morning as a show of confidence and support for Elon Musk, a truly great American."
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There appears to be no question about Trump's loyalty to Musk. The thing is the totality of a relationship that more than any other looks to be driving not just markets but entire economies too.
"We continue to believe the best thing that ever happened to Musk and Tesla was Trump in the White House," writes Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, "as this will create a deregulatory environment with a federal autonomous roadmap central to the Tesla golden strategic vision."
TSLA surged 252% from a 52-week low of $138.80 on April 22 to $488.54 on December 18, juiced by Trump's November 2024 election win. It'd fallen 54.5% from that peak as of Monday's close amid rising concern about the fundamentals of Musk's businesses and his ability to manage not just Tesla but SpaceX and D.O.G.E. at the same time.
TSLA was up 3.8% on Tuesday. But should you sell Tesla stock as Elon unrest grows?
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost another 1.1% to 41,433. The broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.8% at 5,572. And, finally, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gave back 0.2% to 17,436.
Should you sell everything?
Wild price action that shows up in things like the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is good for traders and speculators, particularly those who use options in their strategies. The VIX – often referred to as the "fear index" spiked as high as 29.57 on Tuesday. That's a peak exceeded during the trailing 52 weeks only by the historic volatility spike on August 5, 2024.
But recent price action is unsettling for the millions more market participants accustomed to the kind of conditions supportive of the long-term "up and to the right" trend.
LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist notes that as of Monday's close, the S&P 500 had declined more than 8.5% from its February peak and the Nasdaq was down more than 13% from its December high.
"This turbulence," Turnquist writes, "has caused investors to wonder when the selling might stop and to seek strategies to navigate the challenging market environment."
Turnquist cites "uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs and their economic implications" as "a key factor behind the recent market sell-off." Investors will "hesitate to make significant moves without a clearer outlook."
A bevy of economic data
Turnquist suggests "a bevy of economic data" this week "will begin to clear some pockets of uncertainty."
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January showed that postings rose by 232,000 from December to 7.74 million, ahead of a 7.6 million consensus forecast. Quits – which measures worker confidence in the ability to find a new job – rose by 171,000 to 3.27 million.
"The JOLTS report was in line with expectations," writes Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán, "and continued to show a U.S. labor market that continued to expand in the first month of the year." Aleman concludes, however, that though it's "still a positive report" it "will probably not help markets concerned with the economy."
Meanwhile, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 2.1 points in February to 100.7. It's the second straight month-over-month decline for the index, with the uncertainty index rising to its second-highest level ever.
"Small business sentiment appears to be moderating amid higher economic uncertainty," observe Wells Fargo economists Charlie Dougherty, Jackie Benson and Ali Hajibeigi. "Although economic perceptions remain much more constructive than in recent years, the recent flurry of tariff activity appears to have dented economic expectations and put upward pressure on small business prices."
The economic calendar heats up tomorrow at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time with fresh Consumer Price Index data for February from the BLS. Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House expects price growth "to have cooled somewhat in February" and estimates a 0.3% monthly increase in both CPI and core CPI.
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