Starbucks Stock in Freefall After Earnings Come Up Short

Starbucks (SBUX) stock plunged more than 15% at the start of Wednesday's trading session after the coffee retailer came up short of top- and bottom-line expectations for its fiscal second quarter and lowered its full-year outlook.

In the three months ended March 31, Starbucks said its revenue decreased 2% from the year-ago period to $8.6 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) were down 14% to 68 cents, while global comparable-store sales fell 4% from its fiscal Q2 2023.

"In a highly challenged environment, this quarter's results do not reflect the power of our brand, our capabilities or the opportunities ahead," Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan said in a statement. "It did not meet our expectations, but we understand the specific challenges and opportunities immediately in front of us."

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The quarterly results fell woefully short of analysts' expectations. According to CNBC, Wall Street was calling for revenue of $9.1 billion, earnings of 79 cents per share and global comparable-store sales growth of 1%.

As a result of the disappointing first half of the year, Starbucks lowered its full-year outlook, with Narasimhan citing "a more cautious consumer" as one of the reasons for the downwardly revised forecast. 

On the company's conference call, Starbucks Chief Financial Officer Rachel Ruggeri said fiscal 2024 revenue growth is now expected to be in the low single digits from its previous range of 7% to 10%, and EPS growth in the range of flat to low single digits from its previous range of 15% to 20%.

"While it was a difficult quarter, we learned from our own underperformance and sharpened our focus with a comprehensive roadmap of well thought out actions making the path forward clear," Ruggeri said. "On this path, we remain committed to our disciplined approach to capital allocation as we navigate this complex and dynamic environment."

Where does Starbucks stock stand with analysts?

Starbucks was already struggling on the charts ahead of its fiscal Q2 results. Shares were down nearly 8% for the year-to-date through the April 30 close vs a roughly 6% gain for the broader S&P 500.

And Jefferies analyst Andy Barish sees an "uphill battle ahead" for Starbucks. The "question facing the company and investors is whether these challenges are more transitory or longer-term issues, i.e. brand, relevance, and competitiveness, especially in China," Barish says. The analyst has a Hold rating on SBUX and lowered his price target to $84 from $91 after the company's appearance on the earnings calendar.

Still, most of Wall Street remains upbeat on the consumer discretionary stock. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the consensus analyst target price for SBUX stock is $94.47, representing implied upside of more than 27% to current levels. Additionally, the consensus recommendation is Buy.

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