Kiplinger Energy Outlook: No Major Pain at the Pump This Thanksgiving Weekend

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If you’re one of the millions of Americans driving to visit friends or family this Thanksgiving, you shouldn’t have too much to complain about at the gas station. The national average price of regular unleaded is now $3.07 per gallon, just one penny more than it was on this date a year ago. And with crude oil prices weakening, the retail price of gas might actually dip slightly as the busy travel days approach. Truckers hauling holiday items will pay a bit more for diesel, though. It is averaging $3.79 per gallon nationwide, up from $3.54 a year ago. Chemically similar heating oil is also up modestly this year, in line with diesel’s rise.

Oil prices have been trending lower on the combination of ample global supplies and seasonally soft demand. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude recently traded around $58 per barrel, after spending most of this year in the $60s or low $70s. Consumers will benefit from the downturn in the form of cheaper refined fuels. But producers will struggle to maintain their profit margins with crude trading below $60. We look for WTI to stay at or below $60 per barrel as late fall turns to winter. For now, there are no major signs that demand is poised to perk up, while supply should remain on the high side. The one wild card is U.S. sanctions and other sanctions on Russia’s oil exports in retaliation for its ongoing war on Ukraine, which could tighten global oil markets if they are enforced aggressively enough.

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Natural gas prices have rebounded on weather forecasts showing a sharp cold spell across much of the United States, arriving around Thanksgiving. Benchmark gas futures contracts recently traded near $4.50 per million British thermal units, after spending most of this year below $3 per MMBtu. Whether the price spike proves durable or fleeting depends on whether the cold weather sticks around. If it does, we expect gas futures to stay above $4 per MMBtu, and possibly hit $5. That would translate into noticeably higher heating bills this winter for the many households that rely on natural gas.

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