Trump Has the Edge in an Historically Close Race
The race could still go either way, but Donald Trump appears to be gaining some late momentum.


To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

-
Are You Leaving Money on the Table? Four Strategies to Free Up Stuck Investments
From forgotten 401(k)s to outdated asset allocations, here’s how stuck money can hurt your retirement.
-
COVID Aged Your Brain Faster, Even if You Didn't Get Sick
Whether you contracted COVID or not, your brain took a hit. Here's what that means for your health and what you can do about it.
-
Are You Leaving Money on the Table? Four Strategies to Free Up Stuck Investments
From forgotten 401(k)s to outdated asset allocations, here’s how stuck money can hurt your retirement.
-
A Taxable Brokerage Account May Be What Your Retirement Is Missing
You can supplement your retirement nest egg or save for other goals with a taxable brokerage account.
-
What Tariffs Mean for Your Sector Exposure
New, higher and changing tariffs will ripple through the economy and into share prices for many quarters to come.
-
Five Things to Do if You're Forced Into Early Retirement (and How to Reset and Recover)
Developing a solid retirement plan — before a layoff — can help you to adapt to unexpected changes in your timeline. Once the initial panic eases, you can confidently reimagine what's next.
-
Five Ways to Adapt Your Charitable Giving Strategy in a Changing World: An Expert Guide
Economic uncertainty, global events and increasing wealth are shaping the charitable landscape this year. Here are the philanthropic trends and some tips that could help affluent donors optimize their impact.
-
Stocks Rally on Apple Strength: Stock Market Today
The iPhone maker will boost its U.S. investment by $100 billion, which sent the Dow Jones stock soaring.
-
What to Know About Multisector ETFs
Multisector bond funds allow investors to pick and choose among a wide array of assets.
-
I'm an Estate Planning Attorney: These Are the Two Legal Documents Everyone Should Have
Every adult should have a health care proxy and power of attorney — they save loved ones time, money and stress if a sudden illness or injury leaves you incapacitated.