Trump Has the Edge in an Historically Close Race
The race could still go either way, but Donald Trump appears to be gaining some late momentum.
To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
-
Nasdaq Sinks 418 Points as Tech Chills: Stock Market TodayInvestors, traders and speculators are growing cooler to the AI revolution as winter approaches.
-
23 Last-Minute Gifts That Still Arrive Before ChristmasScrambling to cross those last few names off your list? Here are 23 last-minute gifts that you can still get in time for Christmas.
-
The Rule of Compounding: Why Time Is an Investor's Best FriendDescribed as both a "miracle" and a "wonder," compound interest is simply a function of time.
-
Nasdaq Sinks 418 Points as Tech Chills: Stock Market Today
Investors, traders and speculators are growing cooler to the AI revolution as winter approaches.
-
The Rule of Compounding: Why Time Is an Investor's Best Friend
Described as both a "miracle" and a "wonder," compound interest is simply a function of time.
-
If You're a U.S. Retiree Living in Portugal, Your Tax Plan Needs a Post-NHR Strategy ASAPWhen your 10-year Non-Habitual Resident tax break ends, you could see your tax rate soar. Take steps to plan for this change well before the NHR window closes.
-
Stocks Chop as the Unemployment Rate Jumps: Stock Market TodayNovember job growth was stronger than expected, but sharp losses in October and a rising unemployment rate are worrying market participants.
-
The Delayed November Jobs Report Is Out. Here's What It Means for the Fed and Rate CutsThe November jobs report came in higher than expected, although it still shows plenty of signs of weakness in the labor market.
-
Your Year-End Tax and Estate Planning Review Just Got UrgentChanging tax rules and falling interest rates mean financial planning is more important than ever as 2025 ends. There's still time to make these five key moves.
-
What Makes This Business So Successful? We Find Out From the Founder's KidsThe children of Morgan Clayton share how their father's wisdom, life experience and caring nature have turned their family business into a respected powerhouse.
-
Stocks Struggle Ahead of November Jobs Report: Stock Market TodayOracle and Broadcom continued to fall, while market participants looked ahead to Tuesday's jobs report.
