To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
-
How Trump’s Tariffs Could Impact Your Grocery BillTariffs at the checkout: Preparing for higher grocery bills and how to manage them.
-
Six Steps to Simplify Your Estate for Your HeirsA simplified estate strategy will expedite the settlement of your estate after you're gone, lower audit risk, reduce costs and cut your beneficiaries' stress.
-
How Trump’s Tariffs Could Impact Your Grocery BillTariffs at the checkout: Preparing for higher grocery bills and how to manage them.
-
Six Steps to Simplify Your Estate for Your HeirsA simplified estate strategy will expedite the settlement of your estate after you're gone, lower audit risk, reduce costs and cut your beneficiaries' stress.
-
Three Actions to Protect Wealth Transfer Amid Tax UncertaintyHow should families plan to pass on their wealth amid ongoing uncertainty over estate taxes? Even if TCJA provisions are extended, they might still be temporary.
-
Business Owners: How to Calculate Your Wealth Gap in Five MinutesHow much would you need from the sale of your business to retire without sacrificing your lifestyle? This simple calculation will give you an idea.
-
Stock Market Today: Dow Adds 485 Points After Trump's Tariff DelayThe White House said it will postpone tariffs on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico for one month.
-
10 Ways to Refine Your Financial Plan for a More Secure FutureSignificant benefits throughout the rest of the year can be had if you take some time now to revisit your financial plan and adjust accordingly.
-
The Most Important Number for a Business Owner Considering a SaleCompany owners hoping to sell and stop working won't know whether an offer on their business is good enough unless they know their 'wealth gap.'Evan
-
Stock Market Today: Dow Drops 670 Points on Trade War EffectA prodigious rally by the battered leader of the AI revolution typified an increasingly volatile picture for investors, traders and speculators.
