Trump Has the Edge in an Historically Close Race
The race could still go either way, but Donald Trump appears to be gaining some late momentum.


To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

-
Can the 'Guardrails Approach' Protect Your Retirement Investments?
This investing method helps retirees avoid running out of money, even in a highly volatile market.
By Simon Constable
-
Social Security Is Taxable, But There Are Workarounds
If you're strategic about your retirement account withdrawals, you can potentially minimize the taxes you'll pay on your Social Security benefits.
By Todd Talbot, CFP®, NSSA, CTS™
-
Can the 'Guardrails Approach' Protect Your Retirement Investments?
This investing method helps retirees avoid running out of money, even in a highly volatile market.
By Simon Constable
-
Social Security Is Taxable, But There Are Workarounds
If you're strategic about your retirement account withdrawals, you can potentially minimize the taxes you'll pay on your Social Security benefits.
By Todd Talbot, CFP®, NSSA, CTS™
-
Serious Medical Diagnosis? Four Financial Steps to Take
A serious medical diagnosis calls for updates of your financial, health care and estate plans as well as open conversations with those who'll fulfill your wishes.
By Thomas C. West, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®
-
What Wall Street's CEOs Are Saying About Trump's Tariffs
We're in the thick of earnings season and corporate America has plenty to say about the Trump administration's trade policy.
By Karee Venema
-
To Stay on Track for Retirement, Consider Doing This
Writing down your retirement and income plan in an investment policy statement can help you resist letting a bear market upend your retirement.
By Matt Green, Investment Adviser Representative
-
How to Make Changing Interest Rates Work for Your Retirement
Higher (or lower) rates can be painful in some ways and helpful in others. The key is being prepared to take advantage of the situation.
By Phil Cooper
-
When to Sell Your Stock
Knowing when to sell a stock is a major decision investors must make. While there's no one correct answer, we look at some best practices here.
By Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA
-
Within Five Years of Retirement? Five Things to Do Now
If you're retiring in the next five years, your to-do list should contain some financial planning and, according to current retirees, a few life goals, too.
By Evan T. Beach, CFP®, AWMA®