To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related content
-
U.S. Treasury to Eliminate Paper Checks: What It Means for Tax Refunds, Social SecurityTreasury President Trump signed an executive order forcing the federal government to phase out paper check disbursements by the fall.
-
Bigger Social Security Checks Are Arriving in AprilPayments to eligible retired public sector employees will increase starting in April due to the Social Security Fairness Act (SSFA)..
-
Seven Questions to Ask When Evaluating Personal Loan OptionsTaking out a personal loan too hastily could lock you into unfavorable terms with an untrustworthy lender. Ask these questions before signing anything.
-
How Much Does Being Rich Matter in Retirement?After a certain point, having more money in retirement won't make you any happier, new research shows. Instead, physical health, a sense of purpose, and a minimal amount of non-mortgage debt are more relevant.
-
The Three Biggest Fears Keeping Retirees Up at NightHere are the steps you can take to put those fears to rest and retire with confidence so you can relax and enjoy the life you've planned.
-
What Can a Donor-Advised Fund Do for You? (A Lot)DAFs and private foundations go about helping charities (and those who donate) in different ways. Each comes with its own benefits and restrictions to navigate.
-
Estate Planning When You Have International AssetsEstate planning gets tricky when you have assets and/or beneficiaries outside the U.S. To avoid costly inheritance mistakes, it pays to understand the basics.
-
Microsoft Stock: Innovation Spurs Its 100,000% ReturnMicrosoft's ability to recognize the "next big thing" has allowed sales – and its share price – to grow exponentially over the years.
-
Three Essential Estate Planning Steps to Protect Your Nest EggAfter dedicating years to building your wealth and securing your future, make sure your assets are protected and your loved ones are provided for in the future.
-
Is Chasing the American Dream Ruining Your Financial Life?Too many people focus on visible affluence as a marker of success. Here's how to avoid succumbing to the pressure and driving yourself into debt.
