Trump Has the Edge in an Historically Close Race
The race could still go either way, but Donald Trump appears to be gaining some late momentum.
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To help you understand what's happening in the election race and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Just days before the election, Donald Trump seems to have a slight edge.
Some polls show Trump with a thin lead in this year’s seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Others show Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Note that all these results are within the margin of error.
Harris hopes her robust get-out-the-vote operation will help close the gap. Regardless of the White House winner, the GOP is poised to control Congress.
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The big question hanging over this election, as in 2016 and 2020, is the polls.
If they underestimate Trump as they did then, he will win fairly handily, possibly even exceeding his 2016 total of 306 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton. Some polling aggregators even show Trump breaking his so-called ceiling of support: He’s never eclipsed 47% of the national popular vote, but surveys show him with 48%.
We expect a significantly closer election, given our on-the-ground reporting.
North Carolina is one candidate to be for 2024 what Florida was for 2000: Trump leads, but Harris may have an opening if unpopular Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson helps spur Democratic turnout.
Pennsylvania is another. Notably, Pennsylvania is also one of the states where polls underestimated Democrats in 2022.
In this scenario, don’t be surprised if third-party candidates play spoiler. The Green Party’s Jill Stein threatens Democrats in states like Michigan, where Harris has already lost the support of huge numbers of Arab-American voters over her stance on Israel. Also on the ballot in Michigan: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite dropping out of the race and backing Trump, he could still siphon votes from both candidates.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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