Stocks Are Mixed Despite a Huge Oil Move: Stock Market Today
Stocks and oil continue to rise and fall with the ebb and flow of news from the White House and the Middle East.
The main U.S. equity indexes gapped down at the opening bell after President Donald Trump told the American people the U.S. would achieve its military objectives in the Middle East "very shortly," but would also hit Iran "extremely hard over the next two to three weeks." Stocks rallied off their morning lows on reports the Islamic Republic is working with Oman on a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil soared early and sagged late, as the recent pattern for price action continues.
"I was surprised that President Trump did not hint at an exit plan for the war in Iran in last night’s speech," Mizuho Securities Director of Futures Bob Yawger writes. "Instead, the President doubled down on the concept of blasting Iran to submission." Indeed, as Yawger notes, markets expected Trump "to paint a picture that would allow the U.S. to leave the Middle East in a reasonably short period of time."
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures surged as much as 13.8% and closed with a gain of 11.4% at $111.54. WTI is up 66.4% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 and had its biggest gain in dollar terms in March since it started trading in 1983. "Look for Crude Oil to take out the four-year high of $119.48 from March 9 in coming days," Yawger says.
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Meanwhile, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that Iran and Oman are working on a plan to "monitor transit" through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister of Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said tanker traffic "should be supervised and coordinated" with the two countries.
"Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route," Gharibabadi said, according to the IRNA. Yawger cites Lloyds List Intelligence data showing 201 ships have transited the strait since the war began in late February vs a monthly average of about 3,000, or 120 per day.
"Equity markets seem to be looking past the risk of a higher embedded premium in oil and more focused on the strait reopening," LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist observes. "With oil clearly in the driver's seat of risk appetite, sustainability of the recovery in equity markets appears vulnerable."
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had shed 0.1% to 46,504. But the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.1% at 6,582, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 0.2% to 21,879.
Jobs Friday
The February jobs report released last month showed a surprise drop in payrolls. And the Fed, already concerned about lingering potential effects on inflation due to tariffs, must now account for an energy shock as it tries to fulfill its dual mandate.
Now, tomorrow is the rare Jobs Friday when the stock and bond markets are closed, in observance of Good Friday. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested, though, it's still too early to assess the war's impact on the employment situation.
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Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni estimates that nonfarm payrolls grew by 50,000 in March following a contraction of 92,000 in February and expansion by 126,000 in January.
"Uncertainty about our official forecast remains elevated," Giannoni writes, "with various indicators and approaches sending unusually varied signals." And that does not include the situation in the Middle East.
Maybe Tesla gets you SpaceX
Tesla (TSLA, -5.4%) sold off after the Magnificent 7 stock reported electric vehicle deliveries of 358,000 vs a consensus expectation for 366,000 and energy storage deployment of 8.8 gigawatt hours vs a forecast of 14.4.
"As ever with Tesla, a few thousand cars either way is unlikely to move the dial on valuation," Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Matt Britzman writes. "The bulk of the investment case rests on what is coming next rather than where the core auto business sits today." Britzman cites an "underwhelming" Robotaxi rollout but also potential for "a more positive flow of news in the coming months" about future growth.
Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives suggests Tesla could merge with SpaceX as soon as next year. "Musk wants to own and control more of the AI ecosystem," Ives opines, "and step by step the holy grail could be combining SpaceX and Tesla in some way to give the connected tissue between both disruptive tech stalwarts."
At the same time, a prospectus filed by SpaceX for what would be the hottest of the hot upcoming IPOs to watch could provide for preferential treatment for shareholders of Musk's other companies, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Amazon eyes Globalstar
Globalstar (GSAT) was up 13.4% on Thursday, the communication services stock surging on a report that Amazon.com (AMZN, -0.4%) is negotiating to buy it as a means of boosting its low Earth orbit satellite business.
According to the Financial Times, "Acquiring the satellite group would accelerate Amazon’s push to compete with Elon Musk's SpaceX and its Starlink orbital internet service." A complicating factor in the ongoing talks is Apple (AAPL, +0.1%), which owns 20% of GSAT.
Satellite network operator Iridium Communications (IRDM, +15.2%), which had a market cap of $1.82 billion at the end of 2025, moved much further along its path from small-cap stock to mid-cap stock on speculation it, too, could be an M&A target.
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