Volume was thin Thursday with several international markets closed and many participants extending their holiday fun. Stocks opened the day lower but found their way into positive territory by lunchtime. The enthusiasm faded into the close, however, putting this year's Santa Claus rally at risk.
The Santa Claus rally is "officially defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the new year," says Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. "Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated average and median returns of 1.3% during this period, widely outpacing the market's average seven-day return of 0.3%."
Turnquist adds that when stocks deliver a positive Santa Claus rally return, "the S&P 500 has generated an average January and forward annual return of 1.4% and 10.4%, respectively."
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After closing higher in Tuesday's abbreviated session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished today up 0.07% at 43,325, while the S&P 500 was 0.04% lower at 6,037, and the Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.05% to 20,020.
Investors shouldn't worry about short-term volatility
"The recent volatility appears to be a combination of a Fed more cautious about cutting than hoped for, and the difficult-to-forecast bold changes proposed by the Trump administration which while bullish in theory might be costly in the short term," says Louis Navellier, chairman and founder of Navellier & Associates.
Despite any short-term struggles, Navellier reminds us that "we've had two very strong years in the stock market" and that looking ahead, artificial intelligence (AI) promises to bring big gains in productivity and interest rates are likely to continue falling. "Even without a Santa Claus Rally, there's a lot to celebrate and look forward to," he says.
Continuing claims hit a three-year high
Initial jobless claims headlined a relatively light economic calendar. Data from the Labor Department showed first-time filings fell by 1,000 in the week ending December 21, to 219,000. More notable was that continuing claims rose to 1.91 million from 1.86 million the week prior – the highest level since November 2021.
"For now, the consumer has a healthy appetite for travel and other discretionary items but elevated continuing claims suggest a slowdown in the job market," says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.
Analysts think Palantir can fall by 45%
In single-stock news, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fell 0.3% even after Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said the data analytics firm is one of the best software companies to benefit from AI in 2025.
"We believe Palantir has a credible path to morph into the next Oracle (ORCL) over the coming decade with (Artificial Intelligence Platform) leading the way as many on the Street continue to be huge skeptics of the Messi of AI," the analyst says.
Ives is arguably one of the biggest bulls in Palantir's corner with an Outperform (Buy) rating and a $75 price target – though this still sits 8% below the share price. The consensus recommendation of the 21 analysts following the newest Nasdaq-100 stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence is Hold and the average price target is $43.90 – a more than 45% discount to current levels.
UBS Global Research analyst Karl Keirstead recently initiated coverage on Palantir with a Neutral (Hold) rating. He had a "very positive" review of PLTR's fundamentals, with customers and other checks "almost all bullish" on the value they are getting. "The main thing keeping us on the sidelines is valuation," Keirstead says after the stock has surged nearly fivefold this year, adding that this is "simply tough to get over."
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