Stock Market Today: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Records as Jobs Growth Slows
An uptick in the unemployment rate amid a cooling labor market could accelerate the Fed's rate-cut timeline.


Stocks ended a holiday-shortened trading week with fireworks after signs of a slowing labor market raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut coming sooner rather than later.
The cannonball in the market's pool Friday was the June jobs report, which revealed a still strong but cooling labor market. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, or essentially in line with economists' forecast for the creation of 200,000 jobs. Additionally, the surprisingly strong May jobs report was revised lower to 218,000 new hires from the 272,000 previously reported.
Importantly, the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, ticked up to 4.1% in June from 4% the prior month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate – which is still at half-century lows – to remain unchanged.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
"Perhaps most concerning is the steady rise in unemployment, which rose for the third consecutive month to 4.1%, the loftiest level since November 2021," writes José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. "If the trend continues, it will certainly provide the nation with interest rate relief. Market players are responding by raising the odds of the Fed dishing out a September cut."
The June payrolls report is just the latest in a series of data pointing to a weakening jobs market, which in turn supports the case for lower interest rates. Recall that market participants are eagerly awaiting the Fed's first quarter-point cut, which will bring interest rates down from a 23-year high.
Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled just one cut this year at the Fed's June meeting, a slowing labor market and easing wage pressures have increased the odds of the central bank turning more dovish over the next couple of months.
As of July 5, futures traders assigned a 73% probability to the FOMC enacting its first cut in September, up from 58% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of the first cut coming in December dropped to 22% from 31% a week ago.
Q2 earnings season on tap
Second-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off next week with quarterly reports scheduled from a major air carrier and two the nation's biggest banks.
The upcoming earnings calendar is relatively quiet to start the week, but traders will surely be busy starting on Thursday when Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports ahead of the opening bell. Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker says that DAL is one of the "cleanest stories" in airlines right now, citing Delta's outsized exposure to corporate travel vs peers. The analyst rates DAL at Overweight (the equivalent of Buy), calling it a "top pick."
On Friday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the nation's biggest bank by assets, is slated to post results, as is Citigroup (C). Jefferies analyst Ken Usdin, who rates JPM at Buy notes that loan growth for many banks remains sluggish due to high interest rates, which could continue to weigh on net interest income (NII) in the near term.
The analyst believes NII growth potential is close to turning, although this largely depends on the timing and magnitude of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle.
Downgrade dings Nvidia stock
Friday was a record-setting day for markets, led by mega-cap tech and communications services stocks such as the Magnificent 7. And yet the market's runaway mega-cap tech winner of the bull market missed out on all the fun.
While Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) all rallied strongly to end the week, Nvidia (NVDA) slumped 1.9% on an analyst downgrade.
New Street Research cut its rating on Nvidia to Neutral (Hold) from Buy, citing a "health check" on artificial-intelligence stocks. Analyst Pierre Ferragu said in a research note that further upside in NVDA stock "will only materialize in a bull case, in which the outlook beyond 2025 increases materially, and we do not have the conviction on this scenario playing out yet."
As for the main indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.9% to 18,352 while the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 5,567. Both indexes closed at record levels. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to end at 39,375.
Related content
- How to Find the Best Small-Cap Stocks to Buy
- Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for Dependable Dividend Growth
- If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

Dan Burrows is Kiplinger's senior investing writer, having joined the publication full time in 2016.
A long-time financial journalist, Dan is a veteran of MarketWatch, CBS MoneyWatch, SmartMoney, InvestorPlace, DailyFinance and other tier 1 national publications. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Consumer Reports and his stories have appeared in the New York Daily News, the San Jose Mercury News and Investor's Business Daily, among many other outlets. As a senior writer at AOL's DailyFinance, Dan reported market news from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Once upon a time – before his days as a financial reporter and assistant financial editor at legendary fashion trade paper Women's Wear Daily – Dan worked for Spy magazine, scribbled away at Time Inc. and contributed to Maxim magazine back when lad mags were a thing. He's also written for Esquire magazine's Dubious Achievements Awards.
In his current role at Kiplinger, Dan writes about markets and macroeconomics.
Dan holds a bachelor's degree from Oberlin College and a master's degree from Columbia University.
Disclosure: Dan does not trade individual stocks or securities. He is eternally long the U.S equity market, primarily through tax-advantaged accounts.
-
The Role of the U.S. Dollar in Retirement: Is It Secure?
Protect your retirement from de-dollarization, because “capital always goes where it is treated best."
By Adam Shell
-
Retire in France for Beauty and Culture
France offers a great history and a slower pace of life for retirees. At times, it can feel like stepping into a postcard.
By Brian O'Connell
-
To Stay on Track for Retirement, Consider Doing This
Writing down your retirement and income plan in an investment policy statement can help you resist letting a bear market upend your retirement.
By Matt Green, Investment Adviser Representative
-
How to Make Changing Interest Rates Work for Your Retirement
Higher (or lower) rates can be painful in some ways and helpful in others. The key is being prepared to take advantage of the situation.
By Phil Cooper
-
When to Sell Your Stock
Knowing when to sell a stock is a major decision investors must make. While there's no one correct answer, we look at some best practices here.
By Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA
-
Within Five Years of Retirement? Five Things to Do Now
If you're retiring in the next five years, your to-do list should contain some financial planning and, according to current retirees, a few life goals, too.
By Evan T. Beach, CFP®, AWMA®
-
The Home Stretch: Seven Essential Steps for Pre-Retirees
The decade before retirement is the home stretch in the race to quit work — but there are crucial financial decisions to make before you reach the finish line.
By Mike Dullaghan, AIF®
-
Stock Market Today: Great Power Affairs Mesmerize Markets
The U.S. and China are at least talking about talking about tariffs, and investors, traders and speculators are showing a little less fear.
By David Dittman
-
Three Options for Retirees With Concentrated Stock Positions
If a significant chunk of your portfolio is tied up in a single stock, you'll need to make sure it won't disrupt your retirement and legacy goals. Here's how.
By Evan T. Beach, CFP®, AWMA®
-
Four Reasons It May Be Time to Shop for New Insurance
You may be unhappy with your insurance for any number of reasons, so once you've decided to shop, what is appropriate (or inappropriate) timing?
By Karl Susman, CPCU, LUTCF, CIC, CSFP, CFS, CPIA, AAI-M, PLCS