Nasdaq Rises as Iran Deadline Draws Near: Stock Market Today

President Donald Trump has warned that "a whole civilization will die" if Iran does not accept his terms to end the war in the Middle East. All three main U.S. stock indexes gapped into the red at the opening bell on Tuesday, but trended higher before closing mixed as a now-familiar rhythm of "oil up, stocks down" appears to be reaching a crescendo.

According to The New York Times, Iran told Pakistan it will no longer negotiate a ceasefire directly with the U.S. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports the Islamic Revolutionary Guard "is threatening escalating attacks on Middle East oil-and-gas infrastructure" ahead of the president's 8 pm Eastern Standard Time deadline. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran's electric power and transportation infrastructure if there's no deal.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up as much as 4.6% to $117.63, but ended the session lower by 0.1% at $112.27 per barrel. WTI is up 67% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, trading as high as $119.48 on March 9. WTI hit an all-time high of $147.27 on July 11, 2008, and reached $123.70 on March 8, 2022, amid Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine.

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"A temporary de-escalation remains possible," BCA Research Chief Strategist Felix Vezina-Poirier writes, "with talk of a 45-day ceasefire and evidence that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up."

The strategist says that scenario is unsustainable: "A framework in which Iran keeps its nuclear program while retaining leverage over access through Hormuz is not one the U.S., Israel or Gulf allies would accept on a lasting basis."

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As Vezina-Poirier notes, talk between the warring parties remains heated, and markets are moving from headline to headline about specific attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, still the "swing factor for the global economy over the next few weeks."

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined by 0.2% to 46,584. But the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.1% at 6,616, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 0.1% to 22,017.

UnitedHealth gets a booster shot

UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +9.4%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock on Tuesday after the federal government announced a bigger-than-expected increase in payments to insurers for 2027.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said after the closing bell on Monday that payments under Medicare Advantage and Part D will rise by 2.48% next year, much better than the 0.09% increase proposed in January.

UnitedHealth, with about 45 million covered, is the largest health insurer in the U.S. UNH stock was down more than 14% year to date through the closing bell on Monday.

"We do not believe a Medicare rate increase of 2.5% is so awesome in a vacuum," Mizuho Securities analyst Jared Holz observes, "but it is certainly better than the government’s initial rate decision."

Is AAPL stock on sale yet?

Apple (AAPL, -2.1%) is having a tough time getting its foldable iPhone to work, and the Magnificent 7 stock tumbled on a report that "engineering hurdles" could delay shipments of the new device.

According to Nikkei Asia, May and June will be critical months as Apple works to resolve the issues in time to meet its delivery schedule. AAPL traded as low as $245.70, down more than 5% from its closing price on Monday and almost 15% from its December 3 52-week high of $288.62.

Apple remains the biggest Warren Buffett stock, at about 23% of the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +0.3%) equity portfolio as of December 31.

Buffett, still the chairman of the Berkshire board and a resource for new CEO Greg Abel, said last Tuesday on CNBC that he's "very happy to have it be our largest holding." Explaining Berkshire's recent sale of a portion of its AAPL stake, Buffett added that he "was not happy to have it be as large as almost everything else combined."

At the same time, the Oracle of Omaha said he'd buy "a lot of" Apple stock "but not in this market." AAPL closed at $253.79 last Tuesday, and the iPhone maker is down just 0.1% over the last four trading sessions.

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David Dittman is the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster, which was named one of "10 investment newsletters to read besides Buffett's" in 2015. A graduate of the University of California, San Diego, and the Villanova University School of Law, and a former stockbroker, David has been working in financial media for more than 20 years.