Moderna Stock Is Volatile Amid Bird Flu Developments

Pharmaceutical company Moderna signage is being pictured on a building in Warsaw, Poland, on June 23, 2024 — (Image credit: Aleksander Kalka/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Moderna (MRNA) stock is spiraling Wednesday, down more than 8% at last check. Today's slide follows Tuesday's nearly 12% rally that was sparked by Monday's report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the first death in the U.S. connected to the H5N1 bird flu.

The CDC said "the risk to the general public remains low" and that "no person-to-person transmission spread has been identified," but the news has caused volatility in Moderna's stock because it is developing a bird flu vaccine.

In July 2024, Moderna received $176 million from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to accelerate the development of its pandemic influenza vaccine, mRNA-1018.

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"This subtype of influenza virus causes a highly infectious, severe disease in birds called avian influenza and poses a risk for spillover into the human population," the company said in a statement. Moderna's mRNA pipeline tracker currently shows that vaccine is in Phase 3 studies.

As of January 6, the CDC noted that there have been 66 confirmed cases of the H5N1 bird flu in the United States since 2024, with only one other case occurring between 2022 and 2024.

Is Moderna stock a buy, sell or hold?

Moderna hit its all-time high back in 2021 when the healthcare stock was capitalizing on surging demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. Since its price peak near $484 in August of that year, shares have tumbled almost 90%. And Wall Street remains cautious on the drugmaker.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average analyst target price on the large-cap stock is $73.64, representing implied upside of about 70% to current levels. Despite the implied upside, the consensus recommendation is Hold.

Financial services firm Argus Research is one of those firms with a Hold rating on MRNA stock.

"We think that MRNA shares are appropriately valued at recent prices below $45," wrote Argus Research analyst Jasper Hellweg in a December 17 note. "We would consider an upgrade when the company is able to return to a period of earnings growth and when it has more of its product candidates approved and sold on the market."

Joey Solitro is a freelance financial journalist at Kiplinger with more than a decade of experience. A longtime equity analyst, Joey has covered a range of industries for media outlets including The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, Market Realist, and TipRanks. Joey holds a bachelor's degree in business administration.