Home Depot Warns of Weak Consumer Demand Ahead: What to Know
Home Depot stock is choppy Tuesday as investors parse the retailer's Q2 earnings beat and downwardly revised comparable sales forecast.
Home Depot (HD) stock is struggling for direction Tuesday after the home improvement retailer reported higher-than-expected results for its second quarter but warned of weaker consumer demand.
In the three months ended July 28, Home Depot's revenue increased 0.6% year-over-year to $43.2 billion, helped by its recent acquisition of SRS Distribution, which contributed $1.3 billion of revenue in the quarter. Its earnings per share (EPS) decreased by a penny from the year-ago period to $4.67.
Comparable sales for the quarter were down 3.3%, including a 3.6% drop in the United States.
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"The underlying long-term fundamentals supporting home improvement demand are strong," said Home Depot CEO Ted Decker in a statement. "During the quarter, higher interest rates and greater macro-economic uncertainty pressured consumer demand more broadly, resulting in weaker spend across home improvement projects. However, the team continued to navigate this unique environment while executing at a high level."
Home Depot's headline results beat analysts' expectations. Wall Street was anticipating revenue of $43.1 billion and earnings of $4.49 per share, according to CNBC. However, the comparable sales result was far worse than the 2.1% decline analysts had forecasted.
As a result of its performance in the first half and its recently completed acquisition of SRS Distribution, Home Depot updated its full-year outlook, which includes a 53rd week. The company now anticipates revenue growth in the range of 2.5% to 3.5% and earnings per share to increase between 1% to 3%. This compares with its previous forecast for revenue and EPS growth of approximately 1% apiece.
Home Depot also revised its comparable sales outlook, now anticipating a decline of 3% to 4%. The company said a 3% decline "implies a consumer demand environment consistent with the first half of fiscal 2024" while a 4% decline "implies incremental pressure on consumer demand." The company had previously forecasted comparable sales to decline approximately 1%.
Is Home Depot stock a buy, sell or hold?
Home Depot has struggled on the price charts this year, up a slight 1% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) vs the S&P 500's 13% return. Still, Wall Street is bullish on blue chip stock.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average analyst target price for HD stock is $383.08, representing implied upside of more than 10% to current levels. Meanwhile, the consensus recommendation is a Buy.
Financial services firm Jefferies is one of the more bullish outfits on the Dow Jones stock with a Buy rating and $426 price target.
"A noisy quarter given the six-week sales contribution from recently acquired SRS, but nonetheless, the underlying trend is clear: higher interest rates and greater macroeconomic uncertainty pressured weaker spend across home improvement projects during the quarter," Jefferies analyst Jonathan Matuszewski said in a note this morning.
Jefferies' $426 price target sits almost 23% above HD's current price.
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