What to Expect From the June Jobs Report
The June jobs report will be released Thursday morning. Here's what we expect the data to show.
Jobs data has "been moving in a good direction," said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh in his June 17 press conference, his first as head of the central bank. Indeed, the U.S. has added 569,000 new jobs so far in 2026, or 113,800 per month on average.
However, job growth "continues to be narrow," notes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger jobs outlook, as "100,000 of the total gain in May occurred in just two sectors: food service and local government."
Still, Payne believes the strength we've seen since March "should dispel concerns at the Federal Reserve that the economy might be weakening."
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We'll get the latest nonfarm payrolls report this Thursday, when the Labor Department releases the June jobs figures. The data are usually reported on Friday, but July 3 is a federal and stock market holiday in 2026 as Independence Day falls on a Saturday this year.
When is the next jobs report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the next jobs report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, July 2. Economists expect the U.S. to have added 115,000 new jobs in June and the unemployment rate to have remained 4.3%.
Ahead of the June jobs report, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street expect the data to show and what the results could mean for the Fed and investors going forward. You'll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.
What to expect from the June jobs report
"Investors should expect an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.3% and nonfarm payroll growth in the range of 87k for June. Although a step down from May's 172k, this would be a strong result for a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market. While labor conditions remain broadly intact, the Fed's focus has shifted toward inflation, meaning the timing of any future easing will likely depend more on inflation pressures than payroll growth." - Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy & Research, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, at Glenmede
"After three solid months, we expect June payrolls to also rise by a robust 110k (private: 120k), supported by benign claims and strong ADP data. That said, we see downside risks: May's surge in leisure & hospitality may have been driven by the World Cup or Memorial Day timing, and if it was the latter, June could see payback. We could also see a large reversal in local government jobs after May's outsized gain. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%, though continued strength in household employment could push it down to 4.2%. A strong report would likely move markets closer to our call for three hikes in 2026." - Shruti Mishra, U.S. economist at BofA Securities
"The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is the week's key event, with markets looking for confirmation that the labor market remains resilient. Following Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting, investors are likely to have become more sensitive to incoming data, particularly any signs that inflationary pressures remain embedded in the economy. A stronger labor market would reinforce expectations that the Fed can afford to keep policy restrictive for longer, while a softer reading could prompt markets to reassess the likelihood of further tightening." - Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com
"During this shortened Fourth of July holiday week, we look forward to the June employment report, which once again looks to be solid with market expectations for a 113,000 increase in jobs. If the breakeven level of payrolls really now is closer to zero, as many at the Fed now believe, such strength should result in a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. We also continue to look for answers to what is causing the sharp fall in wages for healthcare workers. The index weight is significant and pulling down the aggregate index." - Richard de Chazal, macro analyst, and Louis Mukama, equity research associate at William Blair
"The labor market continues to stabilize after its swoon in 2025. Initial jobless claims are low and regional Fed employment PMIs point to some modest firming in hiring in June. That said, other indicators have softened recently. Indeed job postings and ADP's weekly hiring measure have both turned down since the spring, while small business hiring plans fell to a fresh cycle low in May. Taken together, the data suggest labor demand is holding roughly steady rather than re-accelerating in a meaningful way." - Wells Fargo economists
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