No one likes the akshually guy, but the bull market isn't really two years old. Although the S&P 500 notched its bear-market bottom on October 12, 2022, a bull market doesn't begin until the market regains its previous peak. By that definition, our current bull market was confirmed in January. Until that point, it was still underwater.
With that technicality of technical analysis out of the way, let's just agree that – what the heck – the bull market is two years old. After all, a bull market isn't defined by a chart; it's made by people. When the macroeconomic backdrop appears favorable for corporate earnings, when those earnings are forecast to grow at an attractive or accelerating rate, and when market participants are willing to pay higher and higher premiums for those expected earnings? Yeah, that's a bull market.
The S&P 500 generated a total return (price change plus dividends) of 67% from the bear-market bottom through late October, driven mostly by the Magnificent 7 stocks. And while it's true Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and other mega-cap AI plays generated an outsized role in the bull market's gains, that cliché about a rising tide lifting all boats is mostly true when it comes to equities.
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Best stocks: buy, sell or hold?
To that end, we screened the S&P 500 for the stocks with the highest total returns since the bear-market bottom to see how industry analysts viewed them at current levels. After all, the names below have more than doubled or even quadrupled and then some. Valuations tend to get stretched after such hot runs, leading to lower future returns.
Below please find the S&P 500 stocks generating the highest total returns from the bear-market bottom through October 23. We also delved into what industry analysts think of these stocks' prospects going forward, using data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. You can see Wall Street's consensus recommendations and scores in the table below.
A note on the scoring system: S&P Global Market Intelligence surveys analysts' stock recommendations and scores them on a five-point scale, where 1.0 equals Strong Buy and 5.0 means Strong Sell. Any score of 2.5 or lower means that analysts, on average, rate the stock a Buy. The closer the score gets to 1.0, the stronger the Buy call.
In other words, lower scores are better than higher scores.
Below please find the best S&P 500 stocks of the bull market and how the Street rates them now.
| Company (Ticker) | Total return % (10/12/22 - 10/23/24) | Analysts' consensus recommendation score | Analysts' consensus recommendation |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | 1,114.7 | 1.29 | Strong Buy |
| Super Micro Computer (SMCI) | 765.3 | 2.33 | Buy |
| Vistra (VST) | 514.9 | 1.67 | Buy |
| Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | 427.8 | 3.10 | Hold |
| Fair Isaac (FICO) | 393.1 | 2.35 | Buy |
| GE Aerospace (GE) | 355.0 | 1.39 | Strong Buy |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) | 344.5 | 1.63 | Buy |
| Meta Platforms (META) | 343.4 | 1.49 | Strong Buy |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | 320.1 | 1.43 | Strong Buy |
| Arista Networks (ANET) | 280.2 | 1.96 | Buy |
| Dell Technologies (DELL) | 273.6 | 1.68 | Buy |
| Axon Enterprise (AXON) | 267.1 | 1.53 | Buy |
| PulteGroup (PHM) | 247.5 | 2.18 | Buy |
| Netflix (NFLX) | 239.2 | 1.98 | Buy |
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | 230.0 | 1.90 | Buy |
| Howmet Aerospace (HWM) | 222.6 | 1.50 | Strong Buy |
| KKR (KKR) | 218.2 | 1.65 | Buy |
| United Rentals (URI) | 208.1 | 2.52 | Hold |
| Uber Technologies (UBER) | 207.3 | 1.51 | Buy |
| Iron Mountain (IRM) | 198.3 | 2.13 | Buy |
| TransDigm Group (TDG) | 191.5 | 1.78 | Buy |
| Carnival Corp. (CCL) | 187.3 | 1.75 | Buy |
| Builders FirstSource (BLDR) | 185.3 | 1.67 | Buy |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | 183.2 | 1.66 | Buy |
| Trane Technologies (TT) | 180.6 | 2.60 | Hold |
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