Is the Stock Market Signaling a Recession Ahead?
Sinking stocks don't necessarily presage an economic downturn.
Stock investors pummeled by a double-dip downturn since last May are beginning to wonder if the market is trying to tell them something—specifically, whether it is telegraphing an imminent recession. The stock market is a legitimate warning sign. After all, it's a barometer of the expectations for the future of corporate America. And indeed, stock market peaks have historically preceded economic downturns by seven to eight months, on average, although the range is much wider.
But as a prognosticator, the market’s record is spotty at best. Stocks have flashed 11 warning signals for the past six recessions, according to global economist Ethan Harris, at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The market gauges Harris watches recently pointed to a 50% chance of recession—as they did in 2011, when no downturn materialized.
It seems clear, however, that expectations for robust growth are fading. At the end of 2014, Harris was predicting 3% growth in U.S. gross domestic product this year. Last November he lowered his forecast to 2.5%, and now he sees just 2.1% growth, with a 25% chance of recession within the next 12 months (see Kiplinger's GDP forecast).
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
There's plenty to worry about. The most recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month. Strength in the dollar is hurting exporters and multinational companies. The most recent employment report showed disappointing payroll growth. And a slowdown in China is sparking worries about a global recession.
But context matters. Manufacturing is just 12% of GDP, and the PMI reading is still above overall recession levels. The dollar’s rise is moderating, and exports, too, play a minor role in GDP. Consumer spending and housing (both healthy) account for roughly 80% of the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate is below 5%. And developments outside the U.S. rarely cause recession here, as the recent eurozone debt crisis shows.
Nor are the usual culprits that typically trigger a recession present in a big way. Rising oil prices? Finding a floor is more the problem these days. Is a market bubble bursting or an industry sector collapsing? Stocks are selling roughly in line with long-term average prices in relation to earnings, and the scale of energy-sector troubles is nothing compared with the financial and housing collapse of a few years ago. Are soaring interest rates choking off growth? Hardly. This time around, a dramatic drop in 10-year Treasury bond yields, to 1.8% in early February, is an ominous sign that investors are worried about the economy.
If anything, the Federal Reserve's extremely accommodative policies, including ultra-low rates, have distorted the view when it comes to spotting the next recession. Moreover, some experts wonder if the Fed has the firepower left to fight one. Investment strategist Jim Paulsen, at Wells Capital Management, would like to see the Fed hike rates more aggressively. "Treating the economy as if it is unhealthy isn't helping anymore," says Paulsen. "Those policies are hurting confidence more than they’re helping fundamentals."
A full-fledged bear market would be another blow to confidence. "If we hit a decline of 25% to 30%, we’ll have a recession," says Leuthold Group chief investment officer Doug Ramsey. Sometimes, he notes, stocks not only lead a recession, they help cause it, too.
Anne Kates Smith brings Wall Street to Main Street, with decades of experience covering investments and personal finance for real people trying to navigate fast-changing markets, preserve financial security or plan for the future. She oversees the magazine's investing coverage, authors Kiplinger’s biannual stock-market outlooks and writes the "Your Mind and Your Money" column, a take on behavioral finance and how investors can get out of their own way. Smith began her journalism career as a writer and columnist for USA Today. Prior to joining Kiplinger, she was a senior editor at U.S. News & World Report and a contributing columnist for TheStreet. Smith is a graduate of St. John's College in Annapolis, Md., the third-oldest college in America.
-
Strategies to Optimize Your Social Security Benefits
To maximize what you can collect, it’s crucial to know when you can file, how delaying filing affects your checks and the income limit if you’re still working.
By Jason “JB” Beckett Published
-
Don’t Forget to Update Beneficiaries After a Gray Divorce
Some states automatically revoke a former spouse as a beneficiary on some accounts. Waivers can be used, too. Best not to leave it up to your state, though.
By Andrew Hatherley, CDFA®, CRPC® Published
-
A Spotlight on the Pacific States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Pacific states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors including tourism, hospitality, and construction.
By David Payne Published
-
The Robots Are Coming... But Not For a While
The Kiplinger Letter There’s excitement in the tech sector over the potential of humanoid robots, but widespread adoption is likely to be years away.
By John Miley Published
-
Farmers Face Another Tough Year As Costs Continue to Climb: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Farm income is expected to decline for a second year, while costs continue to up-end farm profitability.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
A Spotlight on the Mountain States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Most Mountain states are seeing good job growth in multiple sectors from healthcare, energy, and semiconductor production to farming and government.
By David Payne Last updated
-
A Spotlight on the Plains States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The labor market is tight in the Plains states and outside of healthcare and construction most sectors are flat or down.
By David Payne Published
-
Kiplinger's Commodities Forecast
The Kiplinger Letter Following a rocky few years for markets, we expect commodities to be less volatile in 2024, as a post-pandemic normal finally emerges.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
Growth Stalls in China As Property Market Continues to Struggle: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The property market remains a major drag on Chinese growth, with sales now 50% below their peak.
By Rodrigo Sermeño Published
-
A Spotlight on the South Central States: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Outside of the tech sector slump, job growth in the South Central states remains buoyant, with healthcare, construction and business investment going strong.
By David Payne Published